Author Archives: City Gold Bullion

Gold Prices Dead Flat, $1282 'Now Key' as Oil Declines, Base Metals Break 2-Year Trends

GOLD PRICES held dead-flat for this week so far against the Dollar, Euro and Sterling in London trade on Tuesday, treading water as the US stock markets paused at an 11-week high.
 
After US factory input costs showed the strongest pace of inflation in 7 years in May on the ISM Prices Paid index, a survey of service-sector managers today said business expanded for a record 100th successive month.
 
Over 96% of speculative betting on Fed Fund futures now says the US central bank will raise its key interest rate at June 13th’s policy meeting, up from 73% this time last month.
 
After US President Trump lambasted Opec for squeezing energy prices higher, Washington “has quietly asked” the cartel of oil-producing nations to raise their output by 1 million barrels a day, reports Bloomberg.
 
European benchmark Brent crude has now fallen $5 per barrel from late-May’s 3.5-year highs.
 
In base metals, “Copper has breached below the ascending channel that was in force since 2016 trough,” says a new technical analysis from French investment and bullion market-making bank Societe Generale, and “zinc has [also] proved unable so far to reclaim the 2-year up channel.”
 
The Dollar gold price has meantime also now “probed support of the [up-]trend since December 2016 at $1282,” says SocGen.
 
“This remains a key…If [it] gives way, gold will extend the decline.” 
 
Chart of gold priced in Dollars, last 5 years, with uptrend since December 2016. Source: BullionVault
 
“We should see broad support toward $1289-1291,” reckons a note from Swiss refining and finance group MKS Pamp, “[but that is] now looking more vulnerable.”
 
Above current levels, MKS’s trading desk says, “It is currently difficult to see a catalyst for a retest of $1300 [after] strong rejection on Monday.”
 
With gold priced in the Dollar holding at $1293 per ounce on Tuesday, Euro and Sterling prices held at €1109 and £967 respectively.
 
At the UK’s petrol pumps last month, gasoline and diesel prices jumped at a record pace according to the RAC insurance and breakdown service.
 
The UK government meantime approved a third runway at Heathrow Airport – Europe’s busiest terminal, with passenger numbers up 3% in 2017.
 
Italy’s borrowing costs meantime rose to a 4-session high above comparable German Bund yields as new prime minister Giuseppe Conte today vowed in his maiden speech to lawmakers to end “austerity” in government spending, cut the country’s share of illegal migrants to Europe, and review Western sanctions against Russia.
 
Over in Turkey, the world’s fifth largest gold consumer nation, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan today told a rally of supporters that foreign powers are trying to “manipulate” the country’s economy by “playing on currencies,” vowing to “settle the score” with them after the June 24 snap elections, according to the Hurriyet newspaper.

Gold and Silver Prices Rally After Spec's Turn Bullish, Dollar Slips Amid WTO Row

GOLD and SILVER PRICES rose against a weakening US Dollar in London trade Monday, rallying to $1298 and $16.55 per ounce respectively as China and European leaders repeated their challenge to President Trump’s imposition of trade tariffs.
 
Beijing also hit back this weekend over the European Commission lodging a complaint with the World Trade Organization over its “breach of patent rights of European companies”, made alongside a complaint to the WTO over Washington’s new import charges.
 
World stock markets meantime extended their gains while borrowing costs fell again for the new governments of Eurozone members Spain and Italy.
 
Data released Friday by US regulator the CFTC showed a rise in bullish betting on all precious metals in the week-ending last Tuesday – the day Italian bond yields hit multi-year peaks amid confusion over the rightwing Lega and leftwing M5S parties’ choice of ministers.
 
Hedge funds and other money managers grew their net speculative betting on Comex gold futures and options to a 5-week high as a group, but that was still barely 50% of the average level.
 
Silver betting by the ‘Managed Money’ category meantime turned net bullish for the first time in a month. 
 
Chart of 'Managed Money' net position on Comex gold and silver contracts. Source: BullionVault via CFTC
 
With strong US jobs data then following news of Italy’s new coalition forming a government, both silver and gold prices erased the previous week’s gains against the Dollar.
 
Gold ended near its lowest Friday finish of 2018 to date around $1293, while silver ended at a 9-week closing low of $16.41 per ounce.
 
Marking his 500th day in office on Monday, “This is the best time EVER to look for a job,” tweeted US President Donald Trump today, quoting a columnist from the Wall Street Journal after pre-empting Friday’s strong jobs data report via Twitter.
 
Neither the Department of Labor nor finance regulator the Securities & Exchange Commission would comment about Trump’s possible breach of embargo rules, reports USA Today.
 
“The most important behavioral statistic in the jobs report was the quit rate,” says economist David Rosenberg at asset manager Gluskin Sheff, “which hit an 18-year high.
 
“Workers are telling their bosses where to shove their lousy pay. Profit margins at risk of facing the big squeeze!”
 
“With Trump in the White House, anything can and probably will happen at a second’s notice,” say London-based brokers Marex Spectron, “but overall the market is quiet, range bound and quite frankly, rather boring.”
 
“Our fundamental view on gold is neutral to bearish,” says a new commodities note from French investment and bullion market-making bank Societe Generale, pointing to “the rising yield environment and a largely oversupplied physical market.”
 
Only if other financial markets see “risk-off sentiment intensify” would SocGen close a recommended bet against gold in favor of industrial precious metal palladium.
 
Net of India’s 10% import duty, gold landed in the hub of Ahmedabad ended last week at a discount of $2 per ounce to London according to futures exchange NCDEX.
 
Wholesale gold bullion bars in the No.1 consumer nation of China meantime held Monday around $5 above London quotes, barely half the typical Shanghai premium.

USD Gold Price Drops Near 2018 Low as Trump Pre-Empts NFP Jobs Jump, Italy + Spain Get New Leaders

GOLD PRICES fell hard Friday in London, retreating beneath this week’s previous lows for Dollar investors after new US jobs data smashed analyst forecasts.
 
Gold priced in the US Dollar fell to $1282 per ounce – just $10 above last week’s new 2018 lows – as the UK gold price in Pounds per ounce fell to £972, down 1.7% from Tuesday’s spike to 8-month highs.
 
Asian stock markets had earlier closed higher, regaining half of this week’s previous 1.7% loss, while European equities rose but held on track for a 1.3% weekly loss as Spain and Italy prepared to swear in new government leaders from their socialist and anti-Euro parties respectively.
 
Gold priced in the Euro currency traded down to €1107 per ounce, 1% below last week’s finish – the highest Friday close since last September – and almost 2.5% below Tuesday’s spike when Italian bonds sank and interest rates jumped amid Rome’s political confusion.
 
Chart of the gold price in Euros. Source: BullionVault
 
“The US is playing a dangerous game,” said European Union trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom today as the economic union issued a 10-page list of new import tariffs on US goods in retaliation for what’s being called “Trump’s trade war”.
 
With US wages rising 2.6% per year and the unemployment rate dropping to its lowest since the DotCom Bubble peaked in 2000, May’s non-farm US payrolls estimate today showed net growth of 223,000 jobs, way ahead of Wall Street’s consensus forecast and some 6% greater than the last 5 years’ average monthly growth.
 
Taking to Twitter to demand the sacking of a US comedian for a using a “horrible word” to describe his daughter Ivanka, US President Donald Trump today also tweeted advance notice of the jobs number an hour before their official release.
 

Looking forward to seeing the employment numbers at 8:30 this morning.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 1, 2018

 
“This is…unusual,” said Bloomberg columnist Lisa Abramowicz.
 
“The jobs number lockup is taken very seriously – or always has been,” said MCNBC anchor Stephanie Ruhle.
 
Already falling before the official data release, US government bond prices extended their retreat from Tuesday’s plunge to 7-week lows, pushing longer-term interest rates higher again.
 
Two-year US yields then rose to 2.48% after the jobs data, erasing the last of this week’s drop.
 
“Be aware of sudden and strong movements around the [jobs data] release,” said today’s bullion market note from Belgian refiners Umicore.
 
“It was a typical pre-NFP session” in Asia overnight, said Swiss refiners MKS, “with traders and investors happy to await the data.”
 
“We are bearish to neutral on gold prices,” says a new note from French investment and bullion market-making bank Societe Generale.
 
“[Even] our neutral stance is predicated on a set of potentially bullish drivers,” says SocGen, forecasting end-2018 gold prices of $1285, “including the US mid-term elections (November), ongoing geopolitical risks and a maturing economic cycle.”
 
Forced to quit today after 7 years as Spain’s prime minister by a vote of no confidence, “It is an honour to leave a better Spain than I found,” said Mariano Rajoy of the right-wing People’s Party, whose former treasurer and other senior figures were convicted last week of multi-million Euro corruption, money laundering and false accounting.
 
“We’re going to sign a new page in the history of democracy in our country,” said Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez, preparing to meet King Felipe after getting the backing of would-be breakaway politicians in Catalonia and the Basque region.
 
The spread of Italian bond yields over comparable German Bund interest rates meantime eased back once more, falling to 2.3 percentage points from Tuesday’s spike to 2012 levels above 3%, as Italy’s new prime minister Guiseppe Conte prepared to meet President Matteralla.
 
Negotiations over who will be in the governing coalition of rightwing Lega and leftwing M5S politicians last night involved “a thousand twists, mutual distrust and exaggerated tactics” according to sources quoted by Corriere Della Sera.
 
Silver meantime held firmer than gold, trading little changed from 1 week or 1 month ago at $16.43 per ounce.
 
Platinum prices showed a $5 gain for the week above $906.

Gold Slips to $1300 as Italy 'Positive', Swiss Gold Bar Exports Down 1/3rd Ex-China

GOLD BAR prices slipped against all major currencies in London’s wholesale market on Thursday as solid US data followed a rise in Eurozone consumer-price inflation, and Italian bonds rallied for a second day, pulling borrowing costs lower again from Tuesday’s spike to 5-year highs as the Eurosceptic M5S and Lega coalition worked to form a government.
 
With consumer prices rising 1.9% this month from last May across the 19-nation Eurozone – the fastest inflation in a year – the Euro currency recovered the last of this week’s previous 2 cents drop at $1.17 to the Dollar.
 
China’s stock market led a jump in Asian equities, but European shares held flat overall after recovering one-tenth of the last 2 weeks’ drop on Wednesday.
 
Dollar gold prices back slipped to $1300 per ounce in London’s large-bar market, some 1.5% above last week’s new 2018 lows, as US jobless benefit claims came in below forecast.
 
Gold priced in the Euro meantime traded down to €1112, below last week’s finish and more than €20 per ounce beneath Tuesday’s spike to 10-month highs amid the Italian bond market crash.
 
“After yesterday’s truce” in Italy’s political wrangling, says Il Sole 24 Ore, “investors are taking the possible creation of a new government positively.
 
“Negotiations under way include the economist [and Eurosceptic] Paolo Savona but in a department other than the Economy – possibly the foreign ministry.”
 
Easing fears over Italy’s debt helped Asian stock markets rise Thursday, says the Nikkei Review, with India’s “heavyweight” HDFC Bank rising over 4% to all-time highs “a day before foreign institutional investors are allowed to buy the stock.”
 
“People are investing in risky assets like the stock market and real estate rather than gold,” said the Reuters news-wire this week after data from China showed net gold imports to the mainland via Hong Kong slumping by one-third in April from March.
 
“Swiss trade data points to soft demand in key markets,” says a new report from specialist consultants Metals Focus, noting howstatistics from the world’s No.1 gold bar refining hub “provide a useful barometer for global physical demand.”
 
Metals Focus‘ report says Swiss gold bullion exports rose only 2% between January and April from the same period last year, “almost entirely driven by [previously] robust growth in China.
 
“Excluding that country, Swiss exports were actually down by almost a third.”
 
Chart of Swiss gold imports and exports. Source: Metals Focus via FCA
 
India’s gold bar imports from Switzerland were “less than half the figure seen in 2017,” Metals Focus says.
 
“Weakness in the Middle East owed much to poor economic conditions and their impact on consumer confidence…[while] in Europe [a lower import figure from Switzerland] reflects softer demand for gold bars among retail investors, particularly in Germany.”
 
European finance ministers today gathered in Paris for a meeting of the World Trade Organization will likely focus on trying to delay US President Trump’s new trade tariffs, says Bloomberg.
 
This weekend’s G7 summit of the major economies in Whistler, Canada will also see Trump’s “trade war” upset Prime Minister Trudeau‘s agenda on “climate change, women’s empowerment, peace, economic growth for all and jobs for the future,” according to Politico.
 
But Trump’s agenda may in turn be overtaken by Italy‘s sudden political and bond-market crisis “as well as other worries about [debt defaulting] Argentina and [weak-Lira hit] Turkey,” says Canadian Business.

Italy 'Hope' and Weak US Data See Gold Back Over $1300 But China Traders Sell

GOLD PRICES rose back above $1300 per ounce in London trade Wednesday as the Dollar retreated from this week’s jump on the FX market after US data came in weaker than expected and European markets rallied from Italy’s political sell-off.
 
Ahead of Friday’s official non-farm payrolls estimate for May, today’s private-sector ADP report said the US added 178,000 net jobs this month, below the 190,000 analysts forecast.
 
The Bureau of Economic Analysis said gross domestic product expanded 2.2% annually between January and March, slower than first estimated and with the slowdown from end-2017’s 2.9% growth “reflecting decelerations in personal consumption expenditures” – a key measure tracked by US central bank the Federal Reserve.
 
Asian stock markets closed sharply lower but European equities rallied as Carlo Cottarelli – the former IMF official appointed by the President of Italy yesterday as interim prime minister amid its political crisis – worked to keep the left and rightwing M5S and League parties in coalition.
 
“The possibility of a return to the M5S-Lega Government alliance would avoid a return to the polls in July,” explains Il Sole 24 Ore today, “and so the markets are hoping for a stabilization of the political situation” with the spread between Italian and German bond yields declining to 2.6 percentage points from yesterday’s peak above 3.0 as the Euro rallies against the Dollar.
 
FTSE MIB index of Italian equities. Source: Google Finance
 
Italy’s stockmarket rose for the first time in more than a week, adding 1.3% to the FTSE MIB index from yesterday’s 10-month low but still heading for a 10% loss in May.
 
Spain’s Ibex index also rose for the first trading day in six.
 
“Selling out of China [today] outweighed the geopolitical risks continuing to develop in Europe,” says Wednesday’s Asian trading note from Swiss refining and finance group MKS Pamp, with “an early session attempt to consolidate above $1300 abruptly reversed once Shanghai opened.”
 
After holding firmer against the rallying US Dollar than any other major currency during May, the Chinese Yuan has now retreated nearly 3% from April’s 33-month high, falling to its lowest USD exchange rate since mid-January.
 
For gold prices, says MKS, “Expectations are that the developing issues out of Italy and to a lesser extent Spain [plus] the continued softening of US [bond] yields will underpin the yellow metal.
 
“However currently the downtrend needs to be respected.”
 
“An initial pullback is being witnessed,” agrees French bank Societe Generale’s head of technical analysis Stephanie Aymes in a new note on gold prices, saying that “a move beyond [the] channel at $1303/1309 is essential for a larger recovery,” also pointing to gold’s Dollar downtrend starting from April’s peak at $1365.
 
Amid the panic in world stock markets over Italy’s new Eurosceptic coalition potentially calling fresh elections for this summer, the world’s largest gold-backed investment trust – the giant SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca:GLD) – expanded on Tuesday to need 2 extra tonnes of gold backing, growing 0.3% from last week’s 1-month low of 848 tonnes.
 
The Turkish Lira today extended its rally from last week’s new all-time record low on the FX market, pulling gold prices back from record highs for the world’s fifth largest consumer households after the central bank announced a new benchmark interest rate, doubling the cost of 1-week repo agreements to 16.5% per annum.
 
Returning to Ankara today, Turkey’s deputy prime minister Mehmet Şimşek said meetings held in London yesterday had been “fruitful” in reassuring some 90 fund managers, bankers and analysts about the central bank and government’s commitment to tackling “the most important priorities…inflation and the current account deficit.”
 
Madrid’s criminal court meantime today set bail for the wife of Luis Bárcenas – sentenced last week to 33 years in jail for involving the ruling People’s Party – at €200,000 today, citing the “significant amount of economic resources” which the couple accumulated but which has yet to be located.
 
People’s Party treasurer from 2008 to 2009 and a key figure in the co-called ‘Gürtel case’ – named after businessman Francisco Correa, now sentenced to 51 years in prison – Bárcenas has been fined €44 million for money laundering, tax fraud and false accounting.
 
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy faces a vote of confidence in the Spanish parliament this Friday.

Euro Gold Price Hits 11-Month High as Italy and Spain Yields Jump Above Zero on Sudden Political Crises

EURO GOLD prices jumped to 11-month highs as London and New York re-opened after the long holiday weekend on Tuesday, breaking above €1130 per ounce as Italy’s political mess saw Rome’s short-term borrowing costs jump to the highest since the peak of the Eurozone debt crisis in 2012.
 
Giuseppe Conte, the chosen prime minister of Italy’s new Eurosceptic coalition of right- and left-wing parties the League and M5S, yesterday quit trying to form a government.
 
That left President Sergio Mattarella to nominate Carlo Cottarelli, a former official at the IMF, thereby “sidelining” the new coalition and its plans to issue a parallel currency, and probably provoking another election after the summer.
 
Global stock markets fell hard as the single currency Euro sank to its lowest US Dollar exchange rate since last July, dropping over 8% from February’s 3-year peak.
 
The price of 2-year Italian debt has halved since the end of last week, driving the yield offered to new buyers – and the rate at which Rome could borrow for that length of time today – up to 2.4% per annum.
 
Italy’s 2-year yields began last week below 0.17%.
 
Spain’s 2-year bonds also sank in price today, driving their yield back above 0% for the first time since the UK’s shock Brexit referendum in mid-2016, as Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy was told to face a vote of confidence this coming Friday over a scandal which last week saw 29 senior members of his right-wing People’s Party convicted over corruption and false accounting. 
 
“The governance of Spain cannot be left in the hands of a political leader who has lost all credibility,” says an editorial in El Pais.
 
Gold priced in the Euro this morning leapt to €1133 per ounce, its highest since June 2017, before edging back to €1126.
 
Dollar gold prices were meantime unchanged from the weekend at $1302.
 
Chart of gold priced in Euros. Source: BullionVault
 
Italy knows the rules. They might want to read them again,” said Vitor Constancio, outgoing vice-president of the European Central Bank, when asked by Germany’s Spiegel magazine if Frankfurt would rescue Italy from insolvency.
 
“Italy’s destiny is that of Europe,” said Ignazio Visco, governor of the Banca d’Italia, which in 2009 rebuked a move by then-prime minister Silvio Berlusconi targeting Italy’s gold bullion reserves to help pay down the country’s debt.
 
“There are no solutions outside the European Union…[and] there are no explanations, other than emotional, for what is happening today on the markets.”
 
Italy’s 2-year bond yield “is set for its biggest one-day jump in 26 years,” says the BBC.
 
1992 saw Italy first devalue the Lira and then quit the single Euro currency’s precursor, the Exchange Rate Mechanism, as foreign investors sold Italian assets over what one history calls “policies designed to placate the [1970s and ’80s’] social unrest with inflation and with money taken from future generations.”
 
Italy’s public debt then had an average time to maturity of barely 3 years against an average 7 years today, according to an infograhic from the Dipartimento del Tesoro.
 
An auction of new 6-month Treasury bills today achieved an average yield for investors of 1.21% per annum, the first above-zero yield for such short-term debt since September 2015 according to Il Sole 24 Ore.
 
A sale of 6-month bills in late April achieved an average yield of minus 0.42%.
 
The gap between Italian and German bond yields widened still further as the price of Berlin’s debt rose in what headline writers called a “rush to safe havens”, with the spread of 10-year BTPs over Bunds jumping Tuesday to 3.2 percentage points, the widest since March 2013.

Gold Holds $1300, Euro Price Hits 8-Month High as Italy Bond Spread Jumps, Turkey-US Tensions Worsen

GOLD PRICES held above $1300 per ounce in London trade Friday, erasing half of last week’s 2% drop even as the Dollar rose again on the FX market amid fresh tensions between Nato members Turkey and the US plus growing doubts over the debt stability of Italy, the Eurozone’s third largest economy.
 
Euro gold prices set fresh 8-month highs above €1117 per ounce as ‘safe haven’ German Bund prices rose yet again, driving the interest rate on 10-year Bunds down to half the 2.5-year high reached in February.
 
Italian bond prices fell in contrast, driving the spread above 10-year German Bund yields to more than two percentage points, as new prime minister Giuseppe Conte met for 90 minutes with the Italian central bank governor Ignazio Visco to “talk about the state of the Italian economy.”
 
Spread of Italy-Germany bond yields (red) vs Euro gold price. Source: St.Louis Fed
 
Gold prices in Turkey – the No.5 consumer nation, and one of the keenest for buying gold coins – meantime rose Friday to new all-time highs as the Lira hit new all-time lows ahead of next month’s snap election, called by current president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to confirm the sweeping executive powers approved by a 51:49 majority in a referendum last year.
 
Washington will stop fellow Nato member Turkey buying Lockheed Martin F-35 jet fighters – due for delivery on 21 June – unless Ankara halts a plan to buy S-400 air-defense missiles from Russia, a Senate Committee said this week.
 
“These are different issues,” a spokesman for Turkey’s ministry of defense said today. If the block goes ahead, “we will have to respond.”
 
“We are trying to provide them alternatives…[to] encourage them to come back [to Nato],” said US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at the committee hearing on Thursday, adding that he hopes Turkish and US troops can avoid coming into conflict in their separate operations in Turkey’s war-torn neighbor Syria.
 
Appointing the unknown Conte this week after March’s inconclusive election, Italy’s new ruling coalition of right-wing League and left-wing MS5 politicians has proposed lower taxes, higher spending, and a “parallel currency” to run alongside the Euro, issued in the form of short-term government debt.
 
Contrasting Italy with other Eurozone nation’s hit by the debt crisis and banking bail-outs of 2007-2013, today’s real news, tweeted one Italian bond dealer on Friday, is that Italy’s bond spread over Spanish 10-year debt “is at levels (103bps) last seen in December 2011
 
“Spread to Portugal looks even more extreme, at 53 [basis points].”
 
Equity funds in Italy have seen $380m of outflows this week – “a record since mid-2014” – says the Corriere della Serra newspaper.
 
Gold priced in British Pounds also rose Friday, coming within £3 per ounce of a 7-month high at £979 as the FTSE100 index of London-listed shares rose within 2% of Tuesday’s new all-time record high and UK bond prices also rose, pushing longer-term UK interest rates lower.
 
Falling to 1.36% on Friday morning, the 10-year Gilt yield hit a two-year high of 1.67% in February, but has now breached its uptrend from July 2016‘s all-time record low of 0.52% – hit immediately after the UK’s shock Brexit referendum result.
 
Trading volumes in Gilt futures contracts yesterday set a new record high said exchange and clearing house ICE today, jumping almost 6 times above 2018’s daily average to date – itself 18% higher from the first five months of 2017.
 
Back in Turkey, the ruling AKP Party will, if re-elected on 24 June, shut down the government department dedicated to European Union relations, moving its work to the Foreign Ministry.
 
The dean of Istanbul’s Cerrahpaşa Faculty of Medicine was today dismissed from his post after welcoming a visit by Muharrem İnce, the main opposition CHP party’s presidential candidate.
 
A court in Manhattan last week sentenced Turkish banker Mehmet Hakan Atilla to 32 months in prison for busting US sanctions against Iran with gold shipments in a case which heard senior Ankara officials and politicians were involved, including now-president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
 
“[Turkey’s] central bank certainly has been more active in the gold market,” Bloomberg today quotes Australian finance group Macquaries metals analyst Matthew Turner, commenting on data showing that Ankara withdrew almost 28 tonnes of gold from custody at the US Federal Reserve in 2017, moving it to the Bank of England, BIS, and domestic storage.
 
“It seems the government would like a larger share of its reserves in assets that’s not related to the US Dollar.”

'Dovish' Fed Sees Gold Try $1300 Again as Turkey Hikes Rates, Asian Prices Stay Soft

GOLD PRICES rose within $1.10 of $1300 per ounce against a falling US Dollar on Thursday in London after yesterday saw the release of what analysts and headline-writers called “dovish” notes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting.
 
While the Fed’s May meeting minutes showed a consensus for raising Dollar interest rates as expected in June, the Committee also suggested it would be comfortable watching inflation in US consumer prices rise above its 2.0% annual target for “a temporary period”.
 
Most notably, the Fed minutes said “it [is] premature to conclude” that inflation will hold at or above 2% after the cost of living has “persistently run below the Committee’s objective.”
 
Longer-term US interest rates fell on the news, with a rise in US government debt prices today holding the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds back below 3.00% – a near 7-year high when breached in late April.
 
Chart of 10-year US Treasury bond yields vs Dollar gold price. Source: St.Louis Fed
 
Betting on Fed Funds futures contracts today put a 5% chance on the US central bank making no change at its June meeting, down from 10% yesterday but up from 0% across the last month.
 
The market-implied odds of the Fed raising in June and then only twice more in 2018 have now gone from 52% to 60% since this time in April.
 
“While a rate rise would be negative for gold,” says strategist Jonathan Butler at Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi, “if it is accompanied by a further rise in inflation, the real rate environment should be kept favourable to gold and precious metals.
 
“Another tailwind for gold may be risk aversion emanating from the US stock market – the sugar rush of US corporate tax cuts is largely baked into equity prices, and a record earnings season has failed to boost the S&P equity index to fresh highs following the all-time highs seen in January.”
 
The US stock market on Wednesday recovered a small loss to end 0.3% higher after the release of the Fed’s minutes.
 
Asian equities then fell on Thursday. European stock markets also slipped overall as major government bond prices rose, including Italy’s sovereign debt.
 
That pulled Italy’s borrowing costs down from this week’s 10-month highs, hit as the new Eurosceptic coalition government takes office.
 
Over in China’s bullion market, Shanghai premiums held at $6 per ounce above London quotes on Thursday, one-third below the typical gross margin offered to dealers importing gold bars from the world’s wholesale trading hub into the No.1 consumer nation.
 
India gold prices also stayed soft, ending Wednesday $6 per ounce below London quotes according to data from futures exchange NCDEX.
 
That’s the widest discount – after accounting for the country’s 10% import duty on bullion – since October 2016.
 
The Turkish Lira meantime gave back more than half of its 8% overnight rebound on the currency market, falling near this week’s new all-time record lows despite the central bank in Ankara hiking its key lending rate from 13.5% to 16.5% at an emergency meeting.
 
Consumer-price inflation in the No.5 gold consumer nation currently runs at 10% per year.
 
Main opposition party the CHP meantime said its key theme ahead of next month’s snap election – called by President Erdogan to cement the increased executive powers approved by a recent referendum – will be “peace”.
 
No.2 opposition party HDP meantime today saw its deputy leader, former human rights lawyer İdris Baluken, sentenced to more than 16 years in prison for membership of a terrorist organization.
 
As the Dollar also weakened on the FX markets Thursday, the UK gold price in Pounds per ounce popped above £970 and the gold price in Euro terms again rose towards early May’s 8-month highs at €1110.

Gold Re-Tries $1300 as Italy's miniBOTs Spook Euro, Strong Dollar Sends India Gold to Discount

DOLLAR GOLD PRICES came within $2.25 of $1300 per ounce in London on Wednesday morning, rallying even as the US currency rebounded on the FX market ahead of today’s release of notes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting on interest-rate policy.
 
That helped drive Euro gold prices back up towards early May’s 8-month highs at €1110 per ounce as Italy’s government bond prices meantime fell hard yet again amid fresh concerns over the incoming government’s deficit spending plans.
 
The yield offered by Italian bonds rose further above interest rates on other Eurozone sovereign debt, reaching the widest spread since June 2017, as President Mattarella summoned Giuseppe Conte – a little-known lawyer now being challenged over claims on his resumé – to the Quirinal Palace, most likely to appoint him as Prime Minister.
 
So-called “miniBOT” bonds, proposed by members of Italy’s new left-leaning Five-Star and right-wing League coalition, potentially breach European Union rules over government spending deficits, and also risk breaching Eurozone rules by creating a parallel currency.
 
“We do not interfere with domestic politics,” said European Union vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis today.
 
“For now we can only say that it is also important for the new executive to keep the course of responsible fiscal and macroeconomic policies.”
 
Gold priced in Chinese Yuan meantime ended Wednesday in Shanghai unchanged on the day, cutting the premium for bullion delivered there rather than London below $6 per ounce for the first time in 5 weeks thanks to the US Dollar’s rebound on the FX market.
 
Rising against all currencies except the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen on Wednesday, the US Dollar has now risen 8% against the Indian Rupee so far in 2018, helping boost gold prices and dent demand among private households in the No.2 consumer nation.
 
After accounting for India’s 10% bullion import duty, wholesale gold prices in India’s shipping hub of Ahmedabad have fallen below comparable London quotes according to futures exchange NCDEX, nearing the steepest discount since New Year at $2 per ounce.
 
Chart of India gold premiums over London. Source: BullionVault via NCDEX
 
Already 22% higher for 2018 to date, gold priced in Lira rose Wednesday to fresh record highs as the Turkish currency sank once more ahead of next month’s snap election, called by President Erdogan after a referendum gave him greater direct powers and control.
 
“Erdogan is getting his market education and fast,” tweeted one London-based economist today, referring to the Turkish president’s repeated claims that raising interest rates would only worsen inflation, rather than helping support the currency.
 
“The time for the CBRT action is now or this will set Turkey back 20 years in terms of the economy.”
 
Turkey’s main stock exchange, Borsa Istanbul, meantime converted all of its cash assets into Turkish Lira from other currencies “in order to show our confidence” in the Lira which – it said in a statement – has suffered “harsh speculative moves”.
 
Turkish equities today fell 1.2%, matching the drop in global stock markets.
 
Crude oil meantime eased back for only the fifth day from 16 sessions so far in May, pulling Europe’s Brent benchmark back towards $79 per barrel.
 
The UK gold price in Pounds per ounce held around £970, a four-month high when reached early in May.

Silver Price Volatility at 2001 Lows as Rally Outpaces Gold, SLV Grows But GLD Shrinks

GOLD PRICES rallied above $1295 and silver almost recovered last week’s 3% loss in London trade Tuesday, gaining as the US Dollar eased back on the currency market following ‘dovish’ comments from Federal Reserve policymakers.
 
Asian stock markets slipped but Europe pushed higher after Wall Street reached a 2-month high overnight.
 
With crude oil rising yet again – taking Brent with 50 cents of $80 per barrel – European bond yields edged higher while 10-year US yields held below last week’s 7-year highs at 3.1% per annum.
 
Gold priced in the Dollar has now recovered one-third of the last week’s 2.5% drop.
 
Silver meantime reached $16.60 per ounce as New York opened for business on Tuesday, further eroding the yellow metal’s recent multi-year highs above the cheaper, more industrial metal.
 
“A technical reaction is being witnessed on silver after it came down against the [upwards] trend line drawn from December 2015,” says a new technical analysis from French investment and London bullion market-making bank Societe Generale, forecasting a test of resistance at $16.88 per ounce within the next 1 to 3 months.
 
“Silver has been unfolding a choppy and broad consolidation…Short term, it has started staging a recovery.”
 
Chart of silver priced in US Dollars, spot market. Source: BullionVault
 
Over the last 3 months, prices to buy silver have now moved less than 5.8% low-to-high in Dollar terms, the tightest trading range since spring 2001.
 
Gold volatility has meantime seen prices move only 5.7%, picking up a little after April marked the flattest 3-month action since the mid-1990s.
 
On average across the last half-century, silver has been twice as volatile as gold over 3-month periods.
 
The giant iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca:SLV) closed Monday needing 9,984 tonnes of bullion backing, the most since early December.
 
In contrast, gold’s biggest exchange-traded trust fund – the SPDR product (NYSEArca:GLD) – shrank 0.5% in size on Monday as investors sold out.
 
That took the GLD’s bullion outflow to 19 tonnes since end-April saw total holdings reach 5-month highs above 871 tonnes.
 
Expecting only two more Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2018, non-voting member Patrick Harker of the Philadelphia Fed said Monday it is “prudent to continue” raising rates, but only “judiciously”.
 
Voting member Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed meantime said US inflation is “likely to run above” the central bank’s 2% target “for a while”.
 
Market expectations for 3 more rate hikes to 2.5% this year have barely changed over the last week, according to data from the CME futures exchange, with traders holding the odds of Fed rates ending 2018 at that level around two-in-five.
 
Gold priced in the Euro currency held little changed as Dollar prices rose on Tuesday, trading just below last week’s finish of €1098.50 per ounce.