Author Archives: City Gold Bullion

Gold Bullion Declined Amid China Cuts Banks’ Reserve Requirement & Italy’s Debt Crisis Flares Up

GOLD PRICES fell Monday morning as the dollar held firm after China’s central bank eased its domestic policy to support the economy amid concerns that an escalating trade dispute with the United States could hurt growth.

China’s central bank on Sunday announced a steep cut in the level of cash that banks must hold as reserves. The reserve requirement ratio was cut for the fourth time this year by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).

PBOC said that the 1 percentage point reserve ratio cut was “reasonable and moderate, and will not lead to depreciation pressure” on the currency.

China’s onshore renminbi rate was weakened by 0.82% to 6.9253 against the US dollar, making  it the biggest daily decline since 19 July 2018.

Stock markets in Asia sank as the CSI 300 Index, which tracks 300 of the largest stocks on both Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, dropped by 4.3 per cent, the biggest single-day percentage plunge in 31 months, despite its central bank’s policy move after a week-long national holiday. Japan’s markets were closed for a holiday.

A range of IT stocks in Asia traded at the lowest level since July 2017. It was hit on Friday as investors digested the accusation that China had infiltrated American companies with a hardware hack three years ago as reported by Bloomberg.

“Maybe, the trade war is affecting China more than realised and therefore the need to ease on policy, which dampened demand for gold there,” a Singapore-based trader said.

Betting against gold prices by hedge funds and other ‘Managed Money’ traders last week continued to support the record high on Comex futures and options, according to US regulator’s the CFTC’s data series.
 
Net of that group’s bullish bets, the overall short position reduced 5.4% to the equivalent of 227 tonnes, however the positions have been net short for the 12th week running, the longest period since the format was started in June 2006.

 

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.20 per cent to 730.17 tonnes, on Friday.

Italy’s 10-year bond yield climbed to 3.63% a four-year high as the government refused to bow to criticism over its budget deficit plans by the European Commission.   The spread between German and Italian 10-year yields was pushed above the 300 mark, the widest since 2013.

Columbus Day in the U.S. means no Treasuries trade on Monday. Investors are gearing up for $230 billion of Treasury auctions following Friday’s 10-year Treasury yield hitting its highest level since 2011 and after the unemployment rate dropped to 3.7 percent, a 49 year low.

Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister said Britain would be welcomed into the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal with ‘open arms’ after it leaves the EU.

Sterling declined this morning against the US dollar after news that UK business are still anxious about Brexit. Firms in the service sector, which represents 76% of UK GDP, have given up hiring staff, according to the British Chambers of Commerce.

Gold prices for UK investors fell below £910 per ounce on Monday afternoon.

A meeting of top U.S. and Chinese diplomats got off to a frosty start on Monday, with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Chinese Foreign Minister and State Councilor Wang took each other to task amid worsening bilateral relations.

“Recently, as the U.S. side has been constantly escalating trade friction toward China, it has also adopted a series of actions on the Taiwan issue that harm China’s rights and interests, and has made groundless criticism of China’s domestic and foreign policies,” Wang said at a joint appearance with Pompeo.    

Pompeo, who was briefing Wang following his visit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, said: “The issues that you characterised we have a fundamental disagreement.”

Gold Price Clings to $1200 as ETFs Shrink, Bond Yields Rise, US Jobless Rate Hits Half-Century Low

GOLD PRICES clung to the $1200 level yet again on Friday, heading for a $10 weekly gain as world stock markets fell and long-term US interest rates rose to new 7-year highs.
 
Ten-year US Treasury bond yields held at 3.20% after data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics said US employers added just 134,000 jobs in September – contrasting with Wednesday’s strong ADP estimate.
 
The official jobless rate still fell to a new 48-year low of 3.7% however thanks to the BLS revising up August’s figure.
 
“Plenty of offers up above $1205 saw the yellow metal retreat sharply in Asia,” says one bullion trading desk in a note. 
 
European stock markets then fell for the 3rd day this week after New York hit its sharpest drop since late-June on Thursday.
 
Crude oil edged back but headed for a 2.1% weekly gain in US Dollar terms after hitting new 4-year highs above $85 per barrel of Brent ahead of next month’s block on exports from No.5 producer Iran by sanctions from the US over Tehran’s nuclear program.
 
“It now appears that only China and Turkey may be willing to risk US retaliation by transacting with Iran,” reckons US bank Jefferies.
 
Mergers and acquisition spending in the US oil industry leapt 250% in the July-September period, says data from analysts Drillinginfo, reaching the highest quarterly total since end-2012 at $32 billion.
 
Gold-mining funds were meantime the worst-performing investment funds for UK investors in Q3, says data from FE Analytics data, with four managers losing clients between 15% and 19%.
 
The largest gold bullion-backed trust fund, the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca:GLD), shrank this week to its smallest size since mid-February 2016, losing 7 tonnes as shareholders liquidated stock to need 731 tonnes of backing in total.
 
Chart of GLD tonnes backing. Source: BullionVault
 
The number of GLD shares in issue has now shrunk by 15% since gold prices touched the top-end of the last 5 years’ trading range at $1365 per ounce in April, shedding 128 tonnes of backing.
 
Two new competitor funds launched since then and charging US investors less than the GLD’s 0.40% annual fee have so far accumulated 13 tonnes between them.
 
In September those much smaller ETFs – the 0.18% per year SPDR Gold MiniShares (NYSEArca:GLDM) and 0.20% pa Graniteshares Gold Trust (NYSEArca:BAR) – added 3.3 tonnes according to data from mining-development group (and GLD and GLDM sponsors) the World Gold Council.
 
The GLD shrank by 13 tonnes, while the iShares Gold Trust (NYSEArca:IAU) – which costs 0.25% per year – added 4 tonnes.
 
“The big trend that we’re seeing is people looking at this price weakness and using it as an opportunity to switch out of more expensive gold ETFs into lower-cost ETFs,” reckons Graniteshares’ CEO Will Rhind.
 
“[But] I’m not sure we’re ready to see full-blown re-allocations [to gold] right now.”
 
“Online trading platform BullionVault charges as little as 0.12% per annum for allocated gold,” Bloomberg noted earlier this year – “almost as low as the fee to ‘major investors’ with direct access to London’s specialist vaults of 0.10%.”

Gold Trading Back at $1200 as UK Accuses Russia, US Accuses China of Election Meddling

GOLD TRADING in London saw prices tick higher against all major currencies on Thursday, recovering the $1200 mark for US investors as world stock markets slipped amid fresh geopolitical tensions between the US and China, and Russia and Europe.
 
“China wants a different American president,” US vice-president Mike Pence will say in a speech later today, one week after Donald Trump accused Beijing of “attempting to interfere in our upcoming 2018 [mid-term] election” at a meeting of the United Nations. 
 
Meantime the UK accused Russia’s GRU military intelligence unit of cyber-attacks today, including the 2016 hacking of US Democrat Party emails ahead of Hillary Clinton losing to Trump in the race for the White House – a claim also backed by Australia‘s government.
 
The GRU also targeted the international chemical weapons agency based in The Hague, the OPCW, as it investigated the novichok poisoning in Britain of a former Russian spy, the Dutch government said Thursday.
 
The ongoing US investigation into accusations of collusion with Russian agents by the 2016 Trump election campaign yesterday heard “explosive testimony” according to Republican politicians attending the closed-door hearings, saying that ex-FBI lawyer James Baker revealed “troubling…abnormal…[and] inherent bias” against the Republican Party.
 
Europe and the United States, said US ambassador to the EU Gordon Sondland meantime,  should “clean house” in their “long-term faithful marriage” so they can “deal with Chinese growth, Chinese theft of intellectual property, Chinese malign activity, Chinese militarisation in South China Sea, and all the other things we’ve been calling out to China to stop doing.”
 
With all of mainland China’s domestic currency, gold and financial markets still closed for this week’s National Day holidays on Thursday, Hong Kong equities fell for a third day, hitting new 3-week lows amid widening concerns over the impact of Trump’s heavy US trade tariffs on Chinese goods.
 
The so-called ‘offshore’ Yuan fell through what technical analysts called “support” at 6.9 per US Dollar, with analysts at both Bank of America Merrill Lynch and J.P.Morgan now forecasting further falls below 7 Yuan per Dollar.
 
Chart of gold price in USD vs. Chinese Yuan's Dollar exchange rate. Source: St.Louis Fed
 
“[But] some see the uncertainty emanating from the trade war as temporary only, and remain positive over China‘s long-term outlook,” says China economist Chris Leung at the Singapore government-backed DBS Bank, pointing to a rise in central-bank holdings of the Yuan.
 
With central banks outside China growing the Yuan to 1.8% of their total FX reserve assets by end-June this year – up from 1.2% at end-2017 – “They may actually be adding to their Yuan holdings because the currency has fallen so much,” Leung says, “making it a cheap investment.”
 
Gold trading meantime saw “a quiet session” in Asian on Thursday says a note from Swiss refining and finance group MKS Pamp, 
 
“Gold contained in a narrow $4 range with China remaining on holiday.
 
“[But] since European traders have walked in there appears to be some demand.”
 
Euro gold prices today touched new 7-week highs at €1048 per ounce, up 3.4% from last Thursday’s 32-month low.
 
Italy’s borrowing costs meantime eased back relative to German Bund yields, slipping back below 300 basis points after Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte vowed to start cutting Rome’s budget deficit from 2020.
 
But “if the spread rises, we will not back down,” said Conte’s deputy Luigi Di Maio. “We are aiming for an Italy where the GDP grows.”
 
Russia expects to export a record quantity of natural gas in 2018, because “Europe keeps increasing [its] Russian gas imports,” according to Moscow’s energy minister Aleksandr Novak.
 
Natural gas prices rose in European trading on Thursday, while Brent crude oil edged back from yesterday’s new 4-year highs above $85 per barrel.

 

Gold Price Holds 'Short Covering' Spike in Euros, 'Catching Up with Oil' as Italy-Bund Spread Worsens

GOLD PRICES slipped back from yesterday’s 1.6% short-covering jump on Wednesday, dropping as the Dollar rallied following stronger-than-expected US jobs data.

Spot gold retreated $7.50 per ounce to near $1200 yet again after the private-sector ADP estimate said US payrolls expanded by 230,000 in September, almost 25% ahead of Wall Street’s consensus.

The gold price in Euros held firm above €1040 however as tensions between Rome and the European Union over Italy’s government deficit grew worse.

Silver meantime held firm above $14.65 after spiking to 5-week highs on what traders and analysts also called short-covering by bearish speculators closing out their bets.

European stock markets rallied while crude oil ticked higher near 4-year highs.

“The Russians and the Saudis [have] agreed to add barrels to the market quietly,” says a source quoted by the Reuters news agency, “with a view not to look like they are acting on [US President] Trump’s order to pump more.”

The ratio of gold to oil prices – measured in terms of barrels per ounce – has fallen “below 14 for the first time since November 2014,” says a note from specialist analysts Metals Focus.

“Bullion has some catching up to do against black gold,” agrees strategist Jonathan Butler at Japanese auto-maker and trading conglomerate Mitsubishi.

“We are investing in the smiles of Italians,” said Italy’s deputy prime minister, leftwing M5s lawmaker Luigi Di Maio today – “the desire to spend and to live with a better quality of life.”

Italian bond prices edged higher Wednesday morning, trimming the cost of borrowing for Rome.

But the spread over German Bund yields jumped to 342 basis points on data reported by La Stampa, the widest since May’s 5-year high.

“I think there is someone who wants to bring Italy to its knees to buy companies, banks, food companies, fashion, below cost,” said Interior Minister Matteo Salvini of the rightwing Lega Party to Canale 5 television.

“Someone wants Italy weak and full of immigrants, but with this government it does not work.”

“Reports on various news services say [Tuesday’s $15] gold rally was due to ‘haven buying’ [due to] the Italian budget,” says a note from UK brokers Marex Spectron, calling such claims “utter rubbish” because the Euro also rose on the FX market and the argument between Rome and Brussels has “already been festering for almost a week.”

Instead, gold’s rise yesterday “was purely and simply down to short covering,” says Marex, as the metal’s break back above $1200 “triggered buying” and gold priced in Euros “broke through a resistance point at €1030 [which] triggered some more buying.”

Tuesday’s rise in gold prices saw trading in Comex gold futures contracts jump 69% above its 52-week daily average according to data from the CME derivatives exchange.

Silver trading in Comex futures was more than 95% greater than its 1-year average.

“Despite a third straight week of substantial of short covering, speculative positioning [in silver futures] remains deeply in negative territory,” says Mitsubishi’s latest note on precious metals.

“We may also see some short covering support gold,” the analysis goes on, “[because] Comex non-commercial futures are currently in a record net short position [and] inflationary tailwinds could give gold a boost…as the impact of higher oil prices is digested by the market.”

Alongside the metal’s Euro price, the UK Pound price of gold held firm on Wednesday, trading above £925 per ounce as Prime Minister Theresa May told her Conservative Party’s annual conference that she will end “austerity” in governemnt spending in 2019.

Calling for unity over her “Chequers deal” for next March’s Brexit from the European Union, May could however face a leadership challenge after a backbench MP called for a vote of no confidence.

Euro Gold Price Jumps 3% as 'Anti-EU Fury' Hits Italy Over Budget Deficit

GOLD PRICES rose against all major currencies but leapt versus the Euro on Tuesday as the coalition government in Italy refused to cut its 2019 budget deficit plans in defiance of senior European Union figures.
 
Gold priced in US Dollars rose to 1-week highs above $1202 per ounce, and the UK gold price in Pounds per ounce jumped 1.8% to 3-week highs above £927 as the country’s ruling Conservative Party found its annual conference riven by continued arguments over leadership and Brexit.
 
But the gold price jumped fastest against the weakening Euro single currency, hitting €1042 per ounce – nearly 3.0% above last week’s new 32-month low – as the price of Italian government bonds fell hard, pushing up Rome’s cost of borrowing.
 
The spread between Italian bond yields and German Bund yields leapt back above 300 basis points – the multi-year highs reached duriing this spring’s election crisis – following what Italy’s deputy prime minister, Luigi Di Maio of the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement, called “market terrorism” from Brussels.
 
Denying that the EC is pro-austerity, “I think the Italian government must tell the truth to the Italian people,” said European Economic Commissioner Pierre Moscovici to CNBC today.
 
“More public expenditure can make you popular for a while. But then, who pays in the end?”
 
Chart of the gold bullion price in Euro terms. Source: BullionVault
 
The 2019 budget announced by the coalition of right-wing Lega and M5s parties last Thursday puts Italy’s deficit between government income and spending at 2.4% of the country’s annual gross domestic product.
 
Below the EU’s legal limit 3.0% of GDP limit, it would still grow Italy’s underlying debt-to-GDP ratio – already the worst in Europe behind Greece.
 
“One crisis was sufficient,” said outgoing president of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker on Monday, referring to the Greek debt crisis starting in 2010.
 
“We have to prevent Italy from being able to get a special treatment which, if everybody were to get it, would mean the end of the Euro.”
 
Di Maio reacted with what La Stampa calls “anti-EU fury”, lambasting “[this] preventive attack from the European institutions which shows all the prejudices towards Italy” and denouncing Brussels for “market terrorism”.
 
“We are not turning back from that 2.4% target…We will not backtrack by a millimetre,” Di Maio went on.
 
“The package of measures we are developing,” agreed Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte in a post on Facebook, “aims to combine equity and efficiency.”
 
As for leaving the Euro – a move suggested again today by Claudio Borghi, member of the rightwing Lega Party and president of the Lower House’s budget committee – “Italy is a founder member of the European Union and of the monetary union,” Conte said.
 
“The Euro is our currency and it is indispensable for us.”
 
European stock markets held lower on Tuesday afternoon, but Milan’s FTSE MIB index recovered most of an earlier 1.8% drop.
 
The Euro meantime held at 10-week lows on the currency market, helping extend the day’s gains in silver prices to 4.0% for French, German and Italian investors.

Gold Prices Slip as US-Canada Agree New Trade Deal, Italy's Bonds Fall, China Shut for Week-Long Holiday

GOLD PRICES slipped Monday morning, writes Atsuko Whitehouse at BullionVault, dropping to $1185 per ounce as China’s gold market shut for the week-long National Day holidays and the United States reached a “last minute” trade deal with Canada overnight.
 
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose to its highest close since 1991, but other Asian markets were quiet with Labor Day in Australia and Hong Kong shut with Shanghai for the National Day holidays.
 
Already agreed with fellow Nafta trade-deal partner Mexico, the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will widen access for US producers to Canada’s dairy market and also cap Canada’s car exports to its southern neighbor.
 
Both the Canadian Dollar and the Mexican Peso jumped on news of the deal, but the US Dollar’s trade-weighted index – measuring its value against a basket of major foreign currencies – held firm ahead of this week’s key US jobs data report, due Friday.
 
“Gold prices remain dependent on the Dollar at this juncture,” reckons Singapore bank OCBC’s analyst Barnabas Gan.
 
“The US economy has been better than expected. Efforts by the Trump administration to reduce the trade deficit [have] been friendly for the greenback as well.”
 
Betting against gold prices by hedge funds and other ‘Managed Money’ traders last week grew for the 11th week running on Comex futures and options, according to US regulator the CFTC’s data series
 
Net of that group’s bullish bets, the overall short position grew 3.9% to the equivalent of 240 tonnes, the heaviest net short in the 3 weeks.
 
Chart of Managed Money long vs. short bets on Comex gold futures and options. Source: BullionVault
 
“Investors acquired new shorts and continued to shed long gold exposure ahead of the Fed’s rate decision, which was expected to yield a hike,” says a note from Canada’s TD Securities brokerage. 
 
Italy’s government bond prices meantime fell for a third session on Monday morning, pushing the yield on 10-year debt up near fresh multi-year highs after the ruling coalition of left and right-wing “populiust” parties made a budget deficit forecast at 2.4% of gross domestic product, three times the previous administration’s target debt-to-GDP target.
 
Italy’s president and its central bank governor on Saturday warned that the country’s debt must remain sustainable.
 
European stocks opened steady but banking stocks fell after La Repubblica reported that the EU Commission will reject Italy’s budget proposal in November.
 
Gold priced in the Euro currency reversed an early drop to trade back up at €1025 per ounce.
 
Silver prices edged down to $14.58 after jumping 2.5% on Friday to hit $14.72, a 4-week high.
 
That kept the Gold/Silver Ratio of the two metals’ prices relative to each other down at 82.7 after reaching 85.1 in mid-September – the highest since March 1995.

Gold Price Loses Last of USD's 'Trump Bump' as Italy Breaks Deficit Line, Euro Falls

GOLD PRICES rallied but held on track for the lowest weekly finish since January 2017 in US Dollar terms on Friday, rising only $3 per ounce $1184 as world stock markets fell amid new fears over Italy’s growing public debt.
 
Silver in contrast spiked to $14.50 per ounce, back near Monday’s 4-week high versus the Dollar, while platinum prices trimmed their loss for the week to 1.4% at $816.
 
[Make platinum 0.5% cheaper still before Sunday with 0% buy commission in September.]
 
“Worth noting the Chinese holiday next week,” says a trading note from finance and refining group MKS Pamp, “which will remove physical interest from the [gold] market during Asian hours.”
 
With the Chinese Yuan falling today near August’s 20-month low versus the Dollar, Chinese flight bookings to the United States for next week’s National Day holidays are down 42% from last year, the South China Morning Post reports, also blaming the worsening trade-war and political tensions between the world’s two largest economies,
 
This summer’s rise in the Dollar, topped by this week’s hike to US interest rates from the Federal Reserve, has now erased the last of gold’s outperformance in Dollar terms compared to other currencies since Donald Trump entered the White House in January 2017.
 
The gap between gold in Dollars versus gold adjusted for the Dollar’s broad currency index stretched to $128 per ounce at New Year 2018.
 
Chart of gold in USD (red) and ex-USD (blue, via US Dollar Index), rebased to Trump's inauguration. Source: St.Louis Fed
 
Italy’s coalition government meantime confirmed its 2019 budget plans Friday with a breach of the ‘Tria Line’ for Rome’s budget deficit at 2.4% of GDP.
 
Eurozone stock markets lost 1.8% on average as Italy’s MIB index fell 4.2%, led by a slump in Milan’s banking sector.
 
“For the good of the country I will not resign,” said Finance Minister Giovanni Tria after accepting the ‘anti-austerity’ demands of left-wing M5s politicians.
 
“[But] we should be careful,” he warned earlier this week, “because sometimes if you ask [the bond market] for too much, then you have to pay higher interest rates, and what you gain, you lose in interest.”
 
Ruling UK party the Conservatives meantime won their first council seat in the English Midlands city of Nottingham in a decade overnight, beating opposition party Labour by picking up votes from pro-Brexit party UKIP, which did not field a candidate.
 
Claiming at Labour’s annual conference this week that his party is “winning the debate” on the UK’s future, leader Jeremy Corbyn saw delegates supprort a motion for a second referendum on March 2019’s exit from the European Union, while putting forward policies including renationalisation of UK railways and utilities, plus a “solidarity fund” levy on second homes, aimed at ending “greed is good capitalism.”
 
Post-Brexit the UK will become “unequivocally pro-business” Conservative leader and UK prime minister Theresa May yesterday told US financiers in a speech in New York, vowing that “whatever your business, investing in a post-Brexit Britain will give you the lowest rate of corporation tax in the G20.”
 
The UK gold price in Pounds per ounce rallied £8 on Friday from yesterday’s retreat to the lowest level since the Brexit referendum of June 2016.
 
But trading at £908 per ounce, that still put the gold price in Sterling terms on track for its lowest weekly finish since the Friday before that vote’s shock outcome.
 
The gold price in Euros meantime recovered all of this week’s previous 1.0% loss to trade back at €1022 per ounce as the single currency fell on the FX market.
 
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo yesterday said he is “disturbed and indeed deeply disappointed” by the European Union’s move to continue trading with Iran in defiance of Washington’s new sanctions against the Islamic state over its nuclear research program.
 
US president Donald Trump’s “America first” strategy is acting as a “catalyst for long-term de-Dollarization” of global markets and foreign-currency reserves, reckons investment bank J.P.Morgan’s strategist  Marko Kolanovic.

Dollar Up, Gold Prices Down as US Fed Raises Rates, Italy's Deficit Flirts with 'Tria Line'

GOLD PRICES fell hard against the Dollar at the start of New York trade on Thursday, dropping further below $1200 than any time so far in September after the Federal Reserve’s latest hike to interest rates was followed by stronger than expected US jobs data.
 
Last week saw claims for jobless benefits rise less than analysts had forecast despite the impact of Hurricane Florence, holding near half-century lows according to the Department of Labor.
 
The rising Dollar pushed gold prices down below $1187 per ounce, the lowest since 24 August, as a row over Italy’s government budget also saw the Euro currency fall and Milan’s stockmarket drop 1.0% from yesterday’s 7-week high.
 
Chart of US Dollar gold price, last 3 months. Source: BullionVault
 
New York equities held flat after slipping on Wednesday’s widely-expected quarter-point rise to the Fed Funds rate.
 
Silver meantime erased the last of this week’s earlier 1.7% gain to trade at $14.25 and platinum also fell hard, trading $20 beneath last Friday’s spike to 6-week highs of $839.
 
[Save a further 0.5% buying platinum on BullionVault before this weekend with this September 0% commission offer.]
 
“There has been some physical demand below $1200, which is supporting gold,” Reuters today quotes Hong Kong dealer Peter Fung at Wing Fung Precious Metals.
 
“[Because] the Fed statement did not have much of an impact on the Dollar,” said brokerage INTL FC Stone’s analyst Edward Meir overnight, “[that’s] possibly giving gold an element of support.”
 
Wednesday’s Fed statement cut the word “accommodative” while voting members confirmed their outlook for inflation, growth and interest rates on the “dot plot” forecasts.
 
Betting on 3 or more further US interest-rate hikes over the next 12 months retreated overnight after the Fed’s decision, dropping to 43.1% of speculative positions from Wednesday morning’s level of 49.1% according to data from the CME derivatives exchange.
 
Italian bond prices rallied meantime, pushing down Rome’s cost of borrowing after the Finance Ministry denied reports that its chief, Giovanni Tria, will resign over demands from the ruling coalition M5s party for a “basic income” paid to poorer families, plus a cut to the state retirement age, in his new 2019 budget.
 
Analysts say that deputy prime minister Luigi di Maio’s plan to “abolish poverty” risks breaching the Finance Ministry’s so-called “Tria line” of a 2019 budget deficit equal to no more than 2% of GDP.
 
Italy already has the heaviest debt-to-GDP ratio of the 19 single currency Euro nations at 131%.
 
Pushing the 2019 deficit up to 2.4% of GDP as the M5s has asked may see large investment funds – including US giants Blackrock and Fidelity – sell off the position in Italian bonds they have taken in recent weeks “betting on a prudent budget,” reports financial paper Il Sole 24 Ore.
 
“Such a decision could also impact Italy’s credit rating,” it goes on, “with both Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s planning a credit review at the end of October with a high risk of downgrading.”
 
Gold priced in Euros today rallied from a new 32-month low at €1013, rising back to last week’s closing level at €1020 per ounce.

Gold Prices Slip from $1200 Ahead of US Fed Rate Hike and Dot Plot

GOLD PRICES fell $5 per ounce from the $1200 level in London trade on Wednesday, slipping ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s September decision, widely expected to take its key interest rate up to a ceiling of 2.25%.
 
Priced in the single Euro currency gold slipped within €3 per ounce of early September’s 32-month low at €1015 ahead of the Fed decision.
 
The UK gold price in Pounds per ounce fell harder, down to its lowest level since June 2016’s shock Brexit referendum result at £907 per ounce, after the opposition Labour Party voted at its annual conference to “keep all options on the table” regarding Britain’s exit from the European Union next March – including a so-called “people’s vote” on whether or not to remain after all.
 
China’s stock market bounced, recovering most of Tuesday’s drop, but other exchanges held flat overall ahead of the Fed decision as major government bond yields edged lower.
 
Adjusted for market-implied expectations for inflation, the real rate of interest offered by 10-year US Treasury bonds has doubled so far in 2018 to reach a 7-year high just below 1.0% per annum.
 
Gold prices have retreated by almost one-tenth in US Dollar terms.
 
Chart of real 10-over-10 US bond yields vs. gold price. Source: St.Louis Fed
 
The Federal Reserve’s balancesheet has meantime shrunk by 5% to a near 5-year low as it stops re-investing money from matured US Treasury bonds back into new QE purchases.
 
“There is a growing consensus for further gradual tightening given the strong incoming data we have seen,” reckons US brokerage Wells Fargo Securities’ senior economist Sam Bullard.
 
“[But] we see risks tilted dovish going into the meeting,” counters US bank Citi’s economist Andrew Hollenhorst, looking at recent changes in the “dot plot” forecasts of Fed voting members.
 
Reputed to be more dove than hawk on rates, new vice-chair Richard Clarida will today replace the vote of former New York Fed chief Bill Dudley, now succeeded by former San Fran Fed boss John 
 
Wednesday’s announcement may also cut the Fed’s promise about “remaining accommodative” says Citi’s Hollenhorst, suggesting that interest rates won’t help stimulate the economy after today’s rise and so signalling that the rate-raising starting at end-2015 is nearly done.
 
In contrast to that view, almost half of all speculative betting on September 2019’s Fed decision now sees 4 or more interest-rate hikes coming over the next 12 months, according to data from the CME derivatives exchange.
 
That figure of 49.1% has jumped from 22.9% this time in August.
 
After today’s Fed rate rise, “inflation-adjusted Fed rates will be in positive territory for the first time since 2008 – not an especially positive thing for gold,” says a note from Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi’s strategist Jonathan Butler.
 
“In addition, a growing chorus of hawkish voices even from previously notable doves such as Governor Lael Brainard may result in the Fed revising its guidance towards more interest rate hikes in the next 1-2 years, with revised upwards expectations on inflation and growth.”
 
Looking at futures market positions however, “There is still plenty of room for further short covering” in platinum,” says Butler, noting that a reduction in bearish bets “helped lift platinum prices last week”.
 
Platinum today edged back to $826 per ounce, some $2 down for the week so far.
 
Silver in contrast held above last Friday’s finish, trading at $14.42 after jumping to new highs for September on Tuesday, up 1.8% to touch $14.56 per ounce.
 
Latest data from US regulators the CFTC say hedge funds and other speculative traders in Comex silver futures and options cut their heavily bearish betting for a second time running last week, but kept it near series-record highs equal to 7,007 tonnes of metal.

Gold Price Volatility Near 17-Year Low as Equities 'Ignore' US-China Trade War, Gartman Gets Bullish Again

GOLD PRICES edged above last week’s finish at $1200 per ounce Tuesday morning, holding in a tight range yet again as crude oil set fresh 4-year highs and government bond yields ticked up ahead of tomorrow’s interest-rate decision from the US Federal Reserve.
 
Gold was also little changed for non-Dollar investors, trading at €1020 for Eurozone buyers, as 10-year US Treasury rates rose to 3.10%, just below May’s 7-year peak.
 
Major world stock markets pushed higher Tuesday morning but emerging Asia held flat and China’s stock market returned from its mid-autumn festival holiday to drop for the 13th time in the last month.
 
Volatility in gold prices has meantime been lower over the last 22 trading days than all but 11 one-month periods since late 2001 according to BullionVault analysis today.
 
High to low, gold’s London benchmark prices have moved just 2.1% since 24 August.
 
The typical 22-day range over the last half-century has been 5.7% according to data from trade body the London Bullion Market Association.
 
Chart of spot gold price in US Dollars per ounce, last 12 months. Source: BullionVault
 
Comex gold expiry today,” says a trading note from Swiss refining and finance group MKS Pamp, pointing to US gold options contracts.
 
“Notable size [in betting] around $1200 is likely to keep the metal around [that] figure,” says MKS’s trading team.
 
Wednesday will bring expiry of September’s Comex gold futures.
 
Over in the physical market, “The forced sellers have probably been sated,” says Dennis Gartman, author of the eponymous investment letter since 1987, speaking to ETF.com about the recent drop in gold bullion reserves held by the central banks of both Turkey and Venezuela amid this summer’s emerging-markets slump.
 
For investor, “Gold is [now] a far better buy than a sell – no ifs, ands or buts,” he goes on.
 
“If you own 5% of your assets in gold, maybe you should raise that to 10%.”
 
“A year from now,” said Gartman 12 months ago, “gold will be demonstrably higher than it is right now…certainly [at] $1400 in Dollar terms.”
 
With China and the US meantime imposing the latest round of tit-for-tat trade tariffs on each other’s imports yesterday, “Markets [remain] fairly sanguine about the impact of trade wars,” says Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi’s strategist Jonathan Butler.
 
“However this could change if growth concerns reappear, particularly surrounding China, damaging risk assets and potentially supporting safe havens such as gold.”
 
“We seemingly reside,” agree analysts at Canadian brokerage RBC Capital Markets, “in a trading environment that requires an ‘actuality’ rather than a mere risk to see any material rise in gold prices.
 
“For gold to rally, the market needs to expect a sizable negative economic fallout – something large enough to offset the effect of a strong Dollar.”