Author Archives: City Gold Bullion

Gold Prices Set 16-Week Closing High vs. Jobs-Data Hit Dollar, GLD Shrinks

GOLD PRICES rose back above $1320 per ounce versus the falling Dollar in London’s wholesale trade on Friday, heading for the highest weekly close in 16 after new data said the United States added far fewer jobs than analysts expected last month.
 
The official non-farm payrolls estimate also put average annual wage growth in December at 2.5%, unchanged from November’s pace when inflation was seen at 2.2%.
 
That month’s US trade deficit meantime came in today near a 6-year record at almost $50 billion, up 3.2% and wider than analyst forecasts.
 
The Dollar fell hard on the FX market, with the Euro jumping back towards this week’s attempt at 3-year highs just below $1.21, while the British Pound also tested last September’s multi-month peak.
 
That kept the UK gold price in Pounds per ounce £5 below Thursday’s 5-week high at £978.
 
The gold price for Eurozone investors traded below €1095 per ounce, some 1.9% lower from this day last year.
 
The Dollar had already fallen overnight to its lowest level against the Chinese Yuan since September’s spike to 18-month lows.
 
So-called “digital asset” Bitcoin today rallied to a 2-week high at $15,900 as competitor “currency” Ethereum extended its rise above $1000, more than tripling from this time 3 months ago.
 
Co-founder of Ripple Chris Larsen is now the fifth richest person in the United States according to data compiled by Forbes, thanks to his “crypto” jumping 10-fold in price in the last 4 weeks alone.
 
Unlike Bitcoin – now down 25% after rising 12-fold in the year to mid-December – Ripple was launched and is controlled by one company, with no technological limit on the number of units in issue.
 
“As investors were consumed with Bitcoin’s price action in December,” says CNBC, “many missed the longest winning streak ever” in gold-backed vehicle the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca:GLD).
 
The 13-year old exchange-traded gold trust “rallied for 11 straight days before dipping into the red on Wednesday,” it says.
 
Investors have failed to buy into the GLD’s rally however, analysis by BullionVault shows.
 
Since bottoming at 5-month lows on 12 December, Dollar gold prices have now risen 6.8%.
 
The GLD in contrast has shrunk 0.8% in size as investors liquidated stock, needing 7 tonnes less gold to back the value of its shares outstanding, now near the lowest since mid-September at 836 tonnes.
 
While the gold price ended Thursday 12.9% higher from 12 months ago, the GLD was only 2.7% larger year-on-year.
 
With gold prices this strong, that’s the widest gap since April 2012.
 
Chart of Dollar gold price's 12-month % change vs. change in size of GLD
 
Shanghai gold premiums meantime held below $7 per ounce on Friday, more than $2 beneath the average incentive offered for new imports into the world’s No.1 gold consumer nation despite next month bringing both Valentine’s Day and the annual demand peak of Lunar New Year.
 
“Strong physical demand leading into the Chinese New Year is yet to materialise this year,” says Swiss finance and refining group MKS Pamp trader Alex Thorndike to Reuters.
 
“Premiums in Hong Kong were at about 70 cents an ounce, unchanged from last week,” the news-wire adds.
 
Platinum prices meantime held near Thursday’s new 15-week highs at $966 per ounce even as a new report said sales of diesel cars – which use platinum catalysts to reduce harmful emissions – sank 17% in the UK in 2017.
 
Silver prices also traded near yesterday’s peak, holding over 10% higher from mid-December’s low against the Dollar – made just as the US Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate for the third time in 2017 – to reach $17.23 per ounce.
 
“Support is at $16.97 – the 200-Day Moving Average,” says the latest technical note from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta’s New York office, “and momentum indicators are bullish.
 
“Silver appears poised to target the November High at $17.38.”

Gold Prices Shrug Off Asian Selling as Dollar Drops, Stocks Surge with Commodities

GOLD PRICES popped back to $1315 per ounce Thursday lunchtime in London’s wholesale market as new US jobs data saw the Dollar drop and world stock markets rise yet again.
 
New claims for US jobless benefits rose last week, defying analyst forecasts. But ahead of Friday’s official jobs estimate for December, the private-sector ADP report said the world’s No.1 economy added more jobs than expected last month, with payrolls expanding the most in 9 months.
 
Silver tracked gold prices higher again to test $17.20 per ounce for the third time in 3 days, while commodity prices extended what Bloomberg calls their best-ever run of daily gains and Asian and European stock markets also rose once more.
 
The Euro flirted with 3-year highs against the Dollar above $1.20, holding the gold price for Eurozone investors at €1090 per ounce, some 0.6% below yesterday’s 6-week high.
 
The UK gold price in Pounds per ounce extended its straight-line rally from mid-December’s 12-month low, trading above £971.
 
Chart of UK gold price in Pounds per ounce. Source: BullionVault
 
Thursday morning’s Dollar-price benchmarking in London failed to rise from yesterday, ending gold’s strongest run of back-to-back gains since its record run of February 2016.
 
But today’s AM auction did find solid demand from wholesale players around $1313 per ounce, just $1 below Wednesday morning’s LBMA Gold Price.
 
That was in marked contrast to the heavy selling interest around $1317 at Wednesday afternoon’s auction, which then found a balance with demand at $1314.90 – the highest London benchmark price since 15 September.
 
“[After] Chinese banks quickly sold into [Wednesday]’s strength,” says a trading note from Swiss refiners MKS Pamp’s Asian desk, “further liquidation was seen today for gold as speculators and Chinese traders continued to sell.
 
“Platinum, which was the best performer overnight, was under a lot of pressure from Japanese specs, who were eager sellers given the significant rise over the past week while they have been out [for New Year].”
 
Against the US Dollar platinum fell 1.5% overnight from yesterday’s spike to mid-September highs just below $960 per ounce, before recovering that drop in London trade Thursday.
 
Japan’s Nikkei stock index meantime leapt 3.3% on its first trading day of 2018, reaching its highest level since 1992.
 
“Unlike snow, Japan’s deflationary mindset won’t melt easily,” said Bank of Japan chief Haruhiko Kuroda in Tokyo today, vowing to maintain “patiently” the central bank’s unprecedented QE asset-purchase program.
 
Federal Reserve officials also worried last month “that inflation might stay below [their 2.0% annual] objective for longer than they currently expected,” according to minutes from the US central bank’s December meeting released yesterday.
 
Choosing to raise Dollar rates to a decade high of 1.5% however, “most participants” said that President Trump’s tax reform bill was “a factor that led them to boost their projections of real GDP growth over the next couple of years.”
 
“Strong corporate appetite for US Dollars at the end of the year usually means reduced demand for gold,” says analysis of commodity positioning by French investment bank Societe Generale, yet speculators grew their bullish betting on gold derivatives in late-December.
 
“Going forward,” the note adds, “geopolitical unrest in Iran could continue to provide some support to gold prices in the near term.”
 
Iran today accused US President Trump of “grotesque…absurd” interference by tweeting support for the anti-government protests which have now seen 21 killed and been met with arrests and pro-government rallies.
 
Turkey’s Foreign Ministry also attacked the US after a New York court found ex-banker Hakan Atilla guilty on 5 counts of helping Iran evade sanctions over its nuclear program using smuggled gold and illegal payments in a trial where one prosecution witness implicated Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the plot.
 
Trump’s political colleagues at home meantime defended his Twitter attack on sacked PR guru Steve Bannon, accused by the President of having “lost his mind” after claiming in a new book that meetings between Team Trump and Russian officials amounted to “treason”.

Gold Price Records 8th Best Run Since 1968 as Stocks Jump into 2018, Mifid II Begins

GOLD PRICES extended their New Year 2018 rally against the Dollar in London on Wednesday morning, rising for the 10th time in 11 trading days.
 
In the last 50 years the Dollar price of gold bullion has beaten such a run only 7 times before.
 
Touching $1321 per ounce in ‘spot’ trading, physical bullion fixed at $1314.60 in Wednesday’s AM London Gold Price auction, the highest benchmark value since mid-September.
 
Since this run began on 14 December physical gold bullion offered for settlement in London has now gained 5.9% in US Dollar terms.
 
Gold was last this strong in February 2016, its best-ever run of day-on-day gains at London’s morning benchmarking auction.
 
Chart of LBMA Gold Price, AM benchmarkings, last 12 months. Source: IBA
 
“Gold has reclaimed the 200-day Moving Average [now at $1267],” said a technical analysis from bullion market makers Societe Generale on Tuesday, “and short term it should head towards $1313,
[its] September high and the 61.8% retracement of recent down move.”
 
Above there, SocGen sees resistance around $1330 and then $1350 – the “neckline of [a bullish] multi-year inverse Head and Shoulders” formation.
 
Silver meantime fixed at $17.125 at midday Wednesday, rising for the 9th time in the last 10 trading days.
 
Its best run since April 2016, that has only been matched or beaten 24 times since 1968.
 
“Momentum indicators are bullish,” says a technical note from bullion market-makers Scotia Mocatta’s New York office, “as silver appears poised to target the November high” at $17.35 per ounce.
 
World stock markets also continued their New Year 2018 surge following New York’s fresh all-time highs overnight.
 
Commodities as a group stalled however, holding little changed overall from Tuesday’s new 2-year highs on the Reuters-Jefferies CRB index.
 
On the political front, the regime in North Korea re-opened a telephone line to the democratic government in South Korea for the first time in 2 years as dynastic dictator Kim Jong-un said he’d like to discuss sending athletes to next month’s Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang.
 
Responding to Kim’s claim that his nuclear arsenal is ready to fire at any time, “I too have a Nuclear Button,” tweeted US president Donald Trump, “but my Button works!
 
The regime in Tehran called for pro-government protests to counter marches and calls across No.5 oil-producer nation Iran for its theocratic leadership to quit over high inflation and worsening living standards.
 
European regulators meantime backtracked on parts of today’s new ‘Mifid II’ rules, granting an extra 30 months for derivatives platforms from base-metal venue the London Metal Exchange to LIFFE, Eurex and Intercontinental Exchange to comply with the new requirements.
 
Directed by the European Union, the raft of new rules due to come into force today aim to protect investors in financial instruments from shares to bonds, derivatives and collective schemes by boosting transparency.
 
“Mifid II is expected to cost the finance industry more than €2.5bn to implement,” says the Financial Times, “with the largest banks spending more than €40m each on compliance.”
 
While physical property including wholesale bullion is beyond the scope of new regulation, over-cautious interpretation of new regulations by banking compliance departments has been blamed for problems with the London benchmarking auctions since the century-old ‘fixings’ were replaced by independently administered electronic processes starting in 2014.

Gold Bars Gain Further Over $1300 as 2018 Starts 'Risk On', Dollar Falls for New Year

GOLD BARS traded in London’s wholesale market rose to 15-week highs above $1300 per ounce against a falling US Dollar as 2018 got underway on Tuesday, rising almost 1% from before New Year.
 
Global stock markets also gained as the Dollar extended last year’s 9.8% drop against the world’s other leadng currencies – its worst annual fall since 2003 according to Reuters.
 
The price of wholesale gold bars rose 11.9% versus the Dollar in 2017, finishing with the precious metal’s highest year-end close since the record peak of 2012 thanks its best year-on-year performance since 2010.
 
Anti-government protests meantime continued across Iran, where the theocratic regime says 22 people have now died since marches and rallies blaming it for high inflation and falling real incomes began a week ago.
 
To mark New Year 2018, the regime in North Korea unveiled a giant ice sculpture of its Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile, part of the nuclear arsenal leader Kim Jong-un claims can now reach any part of the continental United States.
 
“The US Dollar [is] soggy…[today’s] economic data is strong, risk is ‘on’, investors are looking for yield, and the year won’t start until after Friday’s December US employment report,” says FX analyst Kit Juckes at French investment and bullion market-making bank Societe Generale.
 
Priced in the Dollar, large gold bullion bars meeting the London Good Delivery standards rose above $1313 per ounce on Tuesday, some 6.1% above mid-December’s 5-month low.
 
Silver rose less steeply from before New Year, having already touched Tuesday’s top at $17.10 on Friday for a 9.4% gain from early December’s drop back to July levels.
 
Platinum prices also rose, hitting a 1-month high against the Dollar at $938 to trade 7.4% above mid-December’s near 2-year low.
 
Versus China’s Yuan, the Dollar meantime fell below ¥6.50 on the forex market, its weakest level against the Chinese currency since August’s 14-month low.
 
That saw Shanghai gold premiums, over and above comparable London quotes, begin 2018 some $1.25 below the typical incentive for new imports to the world’s No.1 consumer nation of $9 per ounce.
 
“Interest has been fairly muted in Asia over the past few weeks as the premium stayed fairly range bound around $8-$10,” says Tuesday’s note from Swiss refiners MKS Pamp‘s Asian team, “although seasonal buying in January ahead of Chinese New Year should provide support in our time zone.
 
“There is very real potential for physical interest to drive the [gold] price even higher throughout January. From here, dips below $1290 should be well supported, while next major resistance stands around $1325-$1330.”
 
“[After gold prices] exceeded the technically important 200-day moving average and, a short time later, the 100-day moving average,” says a note from the commodities team at Germany’s Commerzbank, “this allowed it to rise above the psychologically important $1300 per troy ounce mark again.
 
“Speculative financial investors also played a part in the latest price surge,” Commerzbank adds, pointing to positioning data from US regulator the CFTC showing how non-industry traders in Comex gold derivatives grew their net bullish betting “by over 40% since mid-December.”
 
Net of their bearish bets, hedge funds and other ‘Managed Money’ traders under the CFTC categorization grew their bullish positions by 26% in the week-ending Tuesday 26 December.
 
Reaching the notional equivalent of 341 tonnes, that was still one-third smaller than the last 10 years’ average.
 
Silver betting in contrast remained negative as of Boxing Day for a third week running, equal to -1,105 tonnes against a 10-year average of +3,992 tonnes.
 
Chart of Managed Money net betting (notional tonnes) on Comex silver futures and options. Source: BullionVault via CFTC
 
Across 2017 as a whole, the giant iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca:SLV) – the largest silver-backed exchange-traded vehicle – shrank some 6% as shareholders liquidated the stock, needing 9,972 tonnes of bullion to match the value of its shares outstanding.
 
The giant SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca:GLD) meantime added 23.6 tonnes of bullion in 2017 to back the value of its shares as investor for the vehicle grew 2.8%.
 
Taking the exchange-traded trust fund’s total backing to 837 tonnes, that was only one-seventh the inflow of 2016, when the Brexit referendum and US election saw strong investor demand for gold bars, coins and exchange-traded proxies.
 
On a daily basis, the 1-month correlation between net investor demand for the GLD’s shares and the Dollar gold price also weakening, averaging 0.11 in 2017 against 0.38 in 2016 and 0.21 in 2015.

Gold Bullion Price Up 12% in 2017 as Stock Markets Add 20%

GOLD BULLION prices rose a second year running in 2017, ending December at the highest annual close in US Dollar terms since the peak of 2012.
 
Having risen 9.1% in 2016 in Dollar terms, gold bullion finished 11.9% higher again in 2017, its strongest gain since 2010 for US investors.
 
Fixing at $1296.50 per ounce at Friday morning’s London benchmarking, gold bullion recorded its second highest-ever annual finish, lower by more than a fifth from 2012’s peak year-end price of $1664.
 
Friday’s US trade then saw gold bullion priced for 2-day ‘spot’ settlement rise above $1300 per ounce, the highest level since mid-October.
 
Chart of year-end gold prices in Dollars, Euros, Sterling. Source: St.Louis Fed via LBMA and IBA
 
Across 2017 as a whole the annual average gold price was $1257.09 per ounce.
 
Barely $6 per ounce higher from 2016, that was called almost to the dollar by Bart Melek of brokerage TD Securities in this year’s LBMA Forecast competition, just ahead of Thomson Reuters GFMS’s Ross Strachan’s average price forecast and just 1.0% away from the average prediction made by bullion market analysts in January.
 
The single Euro currency’s strong 2017 saw gold prices slip slightly for French, German, Italian and Spanish investors, down 1.4% at Friday’s AM benchmarking from the end of last year.
 
British investors saw the UK gold price in Pounds per ounce add another 1.9% in Sterling terms after 2016’s near-record 31% jump amid the Brexit referendum shock.
 
“A wilting US Dollar, political tensions and receding concerns over the impact of US interest rate hikes fed into [gold’s] rally,” says Reuters.
 
Global equities rose nearly twice as fast as gold bullion in 2017, adding 20.1% on the MSCI World index.
 
US shares, as measured by the S&P500 index, rose 19.4%. The sharpest annual gain since 2013, that extended the stock market’s run of year-on-year gains to nine – the second-ever longest bull market in US equities.
 
“Powering the broad market’s gain was an economic recovery that reached every corner of the globe,” says USA Today.
 
In the US, “rising GDP boosted corporate earnings, pushed consumer confidence to a 17-year high and slashed the jobless rate to its lowest level since 2000,” the paper says.
 
Ahead of Christmas, US retail sales saw their fastest year-on-year growth since 2011 according to Mastercard.
 
E-commerce sales rose 18.1% on Mastercard’s data, with Amazon (Nasdaq:AMZN) taking “45%-50% of holiday online sales vs. 38% in 2016,” according to GBH Insights, boosted by selling “tens of millions of Alexa-enabled devices” in what the e-tail giant called its “best holiday yet”.
 
So-called “digital asset” Bitcoin – “in no way a currency or even a crypto-currency” according to French central bank chief François Villeroy de Galhau, speaking earlier this month in Beijing – meantime touched a new 3-week low on Saturday beneath $12,200.
 
Losing over one-third from mid-December’s near $20,000 all-time peak, Bitcoin has still risen almost 12-fold in 2017.

Gold Price Link to US Rates Weakest Since Mid-2015 as Bond Yields Jump on Trump Tax Bill

GOLD PRICES rose against a falling US Dollar on Wednesday morning, touching 2-week highs at $1266 per ounce despite an overnight jump in longer-term US interest rates after lawmakers in Washington voted to approve President Trump’s tax plan.
 
Adjusted for market-based inflation forecasts, 10-year US interest rates typically move opposite to the direction of gold priced in Dollars.
 
On a weekly basis however, this negative correlation between gold and real 10-year Treasury yields has been weakest over 2017 since the 12 months ending July 2015, reading -0.43 against an average over the last decade of -0.74. 
 
Chart of gold price vs. its 52-week rolling correlation with real 10-year US Treasury bond yields. Source: BullionVault via St.Louis Fed
 
Due for a re-vote today owing to a procedural snag, Trump’s tax cuts will add $1.4 trillion to the annual federal deficit over the next decade according to the bi-partisan Congressional Budget Office.
 
China will meantime push further “structural” reforms, Beijing announced today, seeking what the official news agency called “a virtuous circle” between the financial sector and economic growth to implement leader Xi Jinping’s “thought on the Socialist economy with Chinese characteristics for a new era,” announced at the Communist Party’s congress last month.
 
Clamping down on “irregular and illegal” activities in finance, Beijing will also reduce over-capacity in industry while also “tackling pollution” says Xinhua of what it calls today’s “key” meeting.
 
The Yuan jumped to 3-month highs Wednesday against the falling Dollar, and “Gold buying accelerated after Shanghai opened with a strong premium,” says a trading note from Swiss refiners MKS Pamp.
 
Shanghai premiums rose Wednesday towards $13 per ounce over London gold prices, some 40% above the average incentive for bullion imports into China.
 
The world’s No.1 gold consumer nation, China now sees household gold demand peak at the Lunar New Year, falling in 2018 in mid-February.
 
US Treasury bond prices steadied this morning after their sharpest 2-day drop of 2017 to date, capping 2-year interest rates at 1.86% – the highest since before Lehman Brothers collapsed in autumn 2008 – with 10-year yields at 2.48%, offering the highest rate of return to new buyers since March.
 
Betting on US interest-rate futures now puts the likelihood of a March 2018 hike to 1.75% at nearly 2-in-3.
 
The chances of a further rise in June to 1.75% or above currently stand at 37.1% according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.
 
The Euro single currency today touched last week’s December high above $1.1850, curbing the gold price for German and French investors at €1067 per ounce, some €1.50 lower for the week so far.
 
The British Pound also neared 1-week highs against the greenback, trading above $1.35 after the European Union said the UK’s period of “transition” in leaving the free-trade bloc must end by New Year 2021.
 
The UK gold price in Pounds per ounce held unchanged for this week so far at £943.

Spot Gold Nears 2-Week High as 'Fiscal Turkeys Vote for Christmas' in US Tax Bill, Bitcoin Slips 10%

SPOT GOLD led the other precious metals up towards 2-week highs in London trade Tuesday before slipping back as global equities struggled to extend yesterday’s fresh record highs in the US stock market.
 
The Shanghai and Shenzen stock market closed 1.3% higher at new 2.5-year highs, but Tokyo fell and European equities held flat.
 
German Bund yields ticked higher from last week’s 6-month lows beneath 0.3% per annum.
 
Energy and base metal prices edged higher but agricultural commodities slipped back near last month’s fresh 2017 lows, even as the Dollar retreated on the FX market amid what news wires called “concerns” among traders that Donald Trump’s tax reform bill – now set for approval this week – may not boost US economic growth as previously hoped.
 
Gaining 2.3% from last week’s 5-month low against the Dollar, the price of gold for 2-day settlement in London’s wholesale market touched $1265 per ounce before dropping to $1261 at lunchtime.
 
With China’s consumer demand set to peak with Lunar New Year in mid-February, bullion prices in Shanghai – entry point for gold into the No.1 consumer nation – had earlier set 2-week highs against the Yuan.
 
That held the premium above London spot quotes at $11 per ounce on Tuesday, that extended the strongest incentive to new bullion imports since immediately after October’s National Day vacation.
 
Bitcoin meantime sank almost 10% from Sunday night’s new all-time peak at $19,694 – set just as futures exchange the CME Group launched its new derivative contracts on the code, now variously known as a ‘crypto currency’ or ‘digital asset’.
 
The CME’s January Bitcoin future traded at a 2.3% contango to spot as the start of New York business approached on Tuesday.
 
With spot gold at $1265, the CME’s Jan 2018 gold futures traded just $1 higher per ounce.
 
2017 has seen a “massive rally in Bitcoin [while] US equities have outperformed gold,” says strategist Jonathan Butler at Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi.
 
“To the end of last week, gold had risen 11% in 2017, the DJI by 24% and Bitcoin by 2,133%.”
 
Chart of Bitcoin and Dow Jones Industrial Average, both priced in gold ounces. Source: Jonathan Butler at Mitsubishi via Bloomberg
 
Spot gold prices face “higher equities, surging Bitcoin prices, and the possibility that the tax bill could trigger a modest short-term uptick in both the Dollar and US yields,” reckons Ed Meir at commodities brokers INTL FC Stone.
 
“Probable agreement on the tax reform is doubtless preventing gold from recovering,” agrees a note from German financial services group Commerzbank.
 
With hedge funds and other money managers already slashing their net bullish betting on gold futures and options by 70% from September’s near record highs, the US tax reform “is also likely to deter speculative financial investors from betting more heavily on rising gold prices again,” Commerzbank says.
Chart of 'Managed Money' net long positioning in Comex gold futures and options. Source: BullionVault via CFTC
 
“[But while it] may keep bullion on the defensive over the medium term,” says Butler at Mitsubishi, “in the longer term we believe it will be supportive for gold as a risk/inflation hedge.
 
“These reforms will add another $1.5 trillion to the US national debt, may weaken the Dollar, and [could] raise concerns about an equity market bubble. In the context of US fiscal discipline these reforms could be seen as the proverbial turkeys voting for Christmas.”
 
No.1 oil-producing state Saudi Arabia meantime said Tuesday it intercepted a missile fired by rebel Houthis in neighboring Yemen aimed at Riyadh, the Saudi capital.
 
“The Saudis started the war,” Al Jazeera quotes Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdul Salam in Yemen, where over 20 million people now rely on humanitarian aid after the civil war began in 2015.
 
“Our response will continue and increase.”
 
United Nations’ staff in Ukraine today reported “heavy shelling” around Donbass by separatist rebels, two days after Russia pulled its observers from a joint ceasefire monitoring program with Ukrainian officials.

Platinum Price Jumps After Hedge Funds Go Short, Gold 'Depressed' by Trump Tax and Bitcoin

GOLD PRICES edged higher against a falling US Dollar on Monday morning in London as world stock markets rose to fresh all-time highs, writes Steffen Grosshauser at BullionVault.
 
Silver tracked gold prices, also dropping against the Euro and British Pound, while platinum jumped.
 
Primarily used in catalysts to clean diesel engine emissions, platinum added 1.5% in Dollar terms –nearing $907 per ounce – after South Africa’s Sibanye-Stillwater (JSE:SGL) said it will cut one-third of jobs at Lonmin (LON:LMI) as part of its takeover of the world’s No.3 producer.
 
Hedge funds and other speculators trading Comex futures and option last week went negative on platinum overall for the first week in five after hiking the number of bearish bets they hold to 5 times the last decade’s average.
 
The ‘Managed Money’ category of Comex derivatives trader also went ‘net short’ overall on silver in the week-ending Tuesday 12 December – the first such negative position since July and only the 31st since current records began 600 weeks ago.
 
Chart of 'Managed Money' net speculative long position in CME platinum futures and options. Source: BullionVault via CFTC
 
Donald Trump’s overhaul of the US tax system meantime moved closer to ratification on Monday as the President’s Christmas deadline for approval by Congress drew nearer.
 
Crude oil prices rose amid the ongoing North Sea pipeline outage, plus a strike by Nigerian oil workers.
 
Bitcoin bounced back towards Sunday’s fresh all-time highs at $19,600 after it lost $1,500 immediately that the CME futures exchange launched cash-settled derivatives on the crypto-currency overnight.
 
“The tax reform is negative for gold,” reckons Richard Xu, fund manager at China’s biggest gold exchange-traded fund HuaAn Gold.
 
“We expect gold to stay pretty depressed.”
 
“Nobody cares about gold right now,” says Joe Foster, investment team manager for the Van Eck International Investors Gold Fund, quoted by Bloomberg.
 
“With the stock market marking new highs, everybody’s talking about Bitcoin. Nobody needs a safe-haven asset in this environment.”
 
Ahead of last Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve decision to raise Dollar interest rates to 1.5%, hedge funds and other speculative traders last week cut their net long position in Comex gold contracts to the smallest since July.
 
Down at the notional equivalent of 250 tonnes net of bearish bets, that speculative long position was 10% smaller than the last decade’s weekly average. 
 
“I think it would be foolish not to have an allocation to gold,” says Foster at Van Eck, “because it has a very low correlation to stocks and it’s a hedge against systemic financial risk.”
 
Gold prices rose within 7 cents of $1260 per ounce Monday morning before easing back, while silver erased a 10 cent pop to $16.14.
 
Trading up to $906, platinum today recovered its starting level of 2017 against the Dollar.
 
Gold and silver prices were 9.2% and 0.9% higher respectively from last New Year’s Eve.

Gold Bars Rally 1.8% from Pre-Fed Low as Bitcoin 'Masks Equity Bubble'

GOLD BARS rose above 1-week highs against most major currencies in London trade Friday, extending their recovery from this week’s multi-month lows as world stock markets slipped for a second day from new all-time highs.
 
Bond yields eased back as debt prices rose with commodity costs.
 
Popping to $1260 per ounce as the start of New York business approached, the price of large gold bars traded 1.9% above Tuesday’s 5-month low in US Dollar terms, hit the day before the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate to 1.5% as expected but failed to increase its forecast of rate hikes coming in 2018.
 
Priced in the Euro, wholesale gold bars rallied 1.4% from this week’s drop to the lowest level since February 2016 at €1053 per ounce.
 
Chart of gold bullion bars priced in the Euro. Source: BullionVault
 
Friday’s rally in the Chinese Yuan on the FX market meantime helped pushed the premium for gold bars landed in Shanghai up to $13 per ounce over comparable London quotes.
 
That offered the strongest incentive in two months for new imports of bullion bars to the world’s No.1 gold consumer nation.
 
China’s next peak in private gold buying will likely coincide with the start of the Chinese New Year of the Dog in mid-February 2018.
 
“Gold has hit our advocated support of $1239,” says a new technical analysis from French investment and London bullion market-making bank Societe Generale, pointing to the 50% retracement of gold’s rally from December 2016 to September this year.
 
“The pattern denotes bearish momentum is slowly dissipating,” say the SocGen analysts, “and gold could be setting up for a rebound…towards the 200-day Moving Average at $1265/1267.
 
“A clear break above this will be essential to denote a larger recovery.”
 
“Resistance is at the 200-day MA,” agrees last night’s technical analysis from Canadian bank Scotia’s team in New York, saying that the price of gold bars remains “biased to the downside” below that indicator.
 
So-called “crypto-currency” Bitcoin meantime touched fresh record highs above $17,600 on Friday morning, just beating this week’s earlier peaks.
 
Racing to “mine” the remaining 5 million units of Bitcoin, “The global industry’s power use already may equal 3 million US homes,” reports Bloomberg, topping the individual consumption of 159 countries.”
 
“Bitcoin’s parabolic rise has diverted attention from the bubble in equities,” writes the ever-bearish Albert Edwards at SocGen in his weekly strategy note.
 
“Clients are no longer concerned with overvaluation; they are more concerned about timing and triggers…The extreme bullishness currently prevailing among professional advisors has not been seen in markets since just before the 1987 crash.
 
“We contrast the bullishness around [Wall Street’s recent] headline [earnings per share] numbers with recent poor whole economy data.”
 
Meantime in New York, Mehmet Hakan Atilla – a former executive at Turkey’s state-owned Halkbank – was due to testify Friday in his trial for alleged money-laundering on behalf of Iran. 
 
US prosecution witness Reza Zarrab claims Atilla aided his own smuggling of gold bars to bust international sanctions against Iran over its nuclear weapons program.
 
Losing patience on Thursday with the prosecution’s questioning of a former Turkish police officer on Thursday, “How about this for a novelty,” the judge snapped, “how about asking him what he knows about Mr.Atilla? How about that?”
 
Atilla’s defense called for a mistrial after the witness then said he had no proof the banker ever met Zarrab or was paid bribes.

Fed Rate Rise Sees Gold Price Jump $10 as UK and ECB Hold Despite Rising Inflation

GOLD PRICES rose further in London trade Thursday, gaining $20 per ounce from this week’s 5-month lows after the US Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate as expected.
 
After UK inflation came in at a 6-year high of 3.1%, the Bank of England today voted unanimously to hold its key interest rate at a near record-low of 0.5%.
 
With annual inflation in Germany reaching 1.8% in its strongest year since 2012, the European Central Bank then said it’s keeping deposit rates at minus 0.4% for commercial banks, while extending its new quantitative easing asset purchases at a monthly pace of €30 billion per month until at least September 2018.
 
“Economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in [interest rates],” said the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, taking the overnight Fed Funds rate up a quarter-point to 1.50% at the last major meeting chaired by Janet Yellen before current governor Jerome Powell takes over in February.
 
On average the US central bank’s committee members now foresee interest rates reaching 2.1% in 2018, unchanged from the 2018 forecast they made at the end of last year.
 
Their 2018 forecast when first raising rates from zero in December 2015 however was 3.3%.
 
Gold prices have since rallied over $200 per ounce from what were then 6-year lows, jumping a further $10 after the Fed’s latest announcement to trade at $1257 this morning.
 
Silver also jumped after the Fed decision, rising back above $16 per ounce for the first time in a week.
 
Platinum in contrast held flat, headng for its lowest weekly finish since February 2016, as world stock markets fell back following the raft of central-bank announcements.
 
European government bond prices rose, nudging yields lower as oil and natural gas prices retreated sharply from this week’s spike to 2- and 4-year highs respectively.
 
US Treasury bonds fell in price, edging the yield offered by Washington’s 10-year debt back up to 2.37%.
 
That’s still below the yield offered at New Year 2017, when the Fed’s key overnight interest rate stood at 0.75%.
 
Chart of the effective Fed Funds rate vs. 10-year US Treasury yields. Source: St.Louis Fed
 
On its annual average, the 10-year yield has risen sharply in 2017 to 2.33% from last year’s 1.84%.
 
But it has remained below the level of 2008-2011 (when the Fed moved to zero interest rates and conducted $2 trillion of QE bond purchases) and also below 2013-2014 (when the Fed discussed and then began ‘tapering’ QE ahead of finally raising interest rates from zero in December 2015).
 
Betting on Fed funds futures contracts now sees no change until an evens chance of a rise in March to a ceiling of 1.75%.
 
The bulk of longer-dated bets see that the Fed then holding at that level until a rise to 2.00% or above in September 2018.