Author Archives: City Gold Bullion
Gold Prices Fall After Diwali as Trump's Tax-Cut Plans Boost Dollar
Gold Price Rallies as China Fears 'Minsky Moment' 30 Years After Black Monday, Spain and India Add to Tensions
Gold Prices Drop After LBMA Forecasts 6.6% Gain, Trump Gets 'Shortlist' for Fed Chair

Gold Prices Subdued Despite Re-emerged Geopolitical Tensions and Indian Festivals
GOLD PRICES extended their fall on Tuesday morning in London as the Dollar continued to rise amid speculation off potential new Fed chief and continuing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Korean peninsula, writes Steffen Grosshauser at BullionVault.
Gold slid to $1288 after touching a 3-week high in the previous session before falling through the key level of $1300 per ounce.
Silver tracked gold and dropped to $17.08 per ounce after it had already started falling from a 1-month high at $17.46 on Monday.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar climbed further after a report that US President Donald Trump may appoint the hawkish Stanford University economist John Taylor as the next Fed chair. Trump will meet the current incumbent Janet Yellen on Thursday to discuss her position.
“Gold prices fell on signs of resilience in the US economy, supporting the case for continued rate hikes,” according to a note by Australia and New Zealand Bank Group ANZ.
“A lot of the price drivers that are clouding gold prices are really geopolitical tensions rather than fundamentals,” added Barnabas Gan, analyst at Singapore-listed bank OCBC.
North Korean envoy, Kim In-ryong, warned the general UN assembly that the situation on the Korean peninsula “has reached the touch-and-go point and a nuclear war may break out any moment”.
At the same time in the Middle East, Iraqi government forces seized the northern city of Kirkuk from Kurdish forces – an oil-rich province claimed by both the Kurds and the central government. – The Iraqi government denounced the controversial Kurdish independence referendum 3 weeks ago as unconstitutional. Unconfirmed reports claimed that Kurdish operators briefly halted oil output of around 350,000 barrels per day, oil prices remained near this month’s high on the back of concerns about future supply.
Inflation in the United Kingdom rose in September to its highest level since April 2012, according to data from the UK Office for National Statistics. The rise of 3% versus the same time a year ago makes it more likely for the Bank of England to raise interest rates at its next meeting in November.
The pound’s fall since last year’s Brexit referendum is seen as the main driver for the rising inflation. UK Prime Minister Theresa May travelled to Brussels yesterday to meet with European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker in an attempt to break the deadlock over Brexit talks.
Over in India the festival of Dhanteras takes place today. Dhanteras is an auspicious day for gold and silver purchases in the Hindu calendar and is the start of the festival of lights, Diwali, which takes place this Thursday.
The Indian demand for gold dropped after demonetisation in November 2016, followed by the implementation of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) in July 2017 and the decision this August for gold jewellery trades to fall under the Prevention of Monetary Laundering Act and the Know-Your-Customer (KYC) rule to crack down on the black market.
But after the government reversed its latest mandate and hence freed potential buyers from the requirement to provide their tax identity for purchases over 50,000 rupees (around $770), jewellers were now expecting a 10-15% increase in purchase of gold jewellery compared to last year, said Saurabh Gadgil, Director at the Indian Bullion Jewellers’ Association.
Jewellers in Mumbai have also come up with offers such as discounts and even free mobiles and washing machines to further boost sales, after last year saw the smallest Indian household demand since 2009.
Gold Price Up Above $1300 as Asian Shares Record Multi-Decade Highs, Geopolitical Tension Continues
The GOLD PRICE is up above $1305 per ounce this Monday lunch time amid Asian stock market gains to multi-decade highs following Friday’s record US stock levels.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose to its highest level since November 2007, while Nikkei climbed for a tenth day to the highest level seen since Nov 1996. The FTSE increased 0.06% and DAX gained 0.16%. Spain’s IBEX Index fell 0.67%.
Yesterday Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont called for calm whilst Spain’s central government asked for him to clarify before Thursday whether or not he has declared independence for Catalonia
Meanwhile, tension over North Korea continues to simmer. Today, South Korea and the United States begin week-long joint Navy drills in the waters around the Korean peninsula amid signs North Korea is preparing for another provocative move such as a missile launch. North Korea’s state-run media agency KCNA on Saturday criticized the exercise, calling it a “reckless act of war maniacs.”
In the Middle East, concerns regarding U.S. sanctions against Iran as well as the ongoing conflict in Iraq are seen to be pushing up oil prices. WTI crude climbed toward $52 a barrel.
“(Gold) Prices have established themselves above $1,300, although the upside may be a little limited, we would expect to see it remain at $1,300-1,310 mark over the course of the week,” said ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes.
“The market’s still surely pricing in a rate hike this year by the U.S. Federal Reserve.”
Over the weekend “The biggest surprise in the U.S. economy this year has been inflation,” Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said at the Group of Thirty’s Annual International Banking Seminar in Washington, while she confirmed the U.S. central bank expects to continue raising interest rates gradually as solid growth, a strong labour market and a healthy global economy lifts prices.
The US core consumer price index rose 1.7% in September up from the prior year, missing estimates for a 1.8% rise according to the data released last Friday.
Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, has consistently undershot the U.S. central bank’s 2% target for more than five years.
In contrast to Yellen, at the same meeting Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said “The Bank of Japan will consistently pursue aggressive monetary easing with a view to achieving the price stability target at the earliest possible time.”
Last month, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan dissolved Parliament and called a snap election for Oct. 22. Voters will have the chance to weigh in on Abe’s stimulus plan to revitalize Japan’s economy — known as “Abenomics.”
USD index, the value of USD relative to a basket of foreign currencies, gained 0.1% as the yield on 10-year Treasuries raised two basis points to 2.29 %.
The latest data says that net bullish betting by money managers on Comex gold derivatives reduced 2.82% to 561 tonnes last Tuesday, although the speculative net long position gained. This is the 4th weekly loss and the lowest level in 8 weeks.

However hedge funds and other money managers trading Comex silver futures and options contracts kept the net long position almost flat from the previous week. It is still at a six week low.
Silver prices are up to $17.44 per ounce, the highest level in 4 weeks.
Back in Europe, yesterday’s election in Austria that saw the conservative People’s Party led by 31-year-old Sebastian Kurz look likely to take the country’s general election but nationalist Freedom Party (FPÖ) led by Heinz-Christian Strache looked set to emerge as kingmaker in coalition talks after Mr Kurz failed to win an outright majority.
The industry-leading event, London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) annual conference is being held in Barcelona until Tuesday.
Gold Bars +2.6% for Week So Far as US Fed Dents Dollar, T-Bond Correlation Grows Ever-Stronger






