Author Archives: City Gold Bullion

Gold Prices Slip After Stronger US Inflation Data, Fed President Comments on Dollar Rate Hikes

GOLD PRICES tracked lower to $1272 per ounce on Wednesday morning in London, while markets waited for US central bank the Federal Reserve’s latest FOMC meeting minutes to be released, writes Steffen Grosshauser at BullionVault.

Yesterday’s stronger US economic data were followed by comments from both the Atlanta and San Francisco Fed presidents that at least two interest-rate increases may be warranted this year. A third Fed official said that he would push for an interest hike as early as June when officials meet next month.

The US consumer price index (CPI) accelerated by 0.4% in April and showed its biggest increase in more than three years, according to data published by the Department of Labor on Tuesday.

Petrol prices and rents also rose while new housing starts and industrial production recovered by 6.6% and 0.7% respectively, seen by several market observers as indications of a steady inflation build-up.

Gold dropped around 0.5% from $1280 following this news. The yellow metal has rallied around 20% so far this year, as interest rates on government bonds fell, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold bullion.

“The prices have slipped slightly today…that is partly due to speculation or increased bets that the Fed will be listing higher rates this year,” said Vyanne Lai, analyst at National Australia Bank.    

“Expectations appear to be that minutes will signal that a summer hike is on the cards,” agrees currency strategist Stuart Bennett at the Spanish banking group Santander.

The Dollar index, which measures the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, climbed 0.3% to 94.83.

Brent crude oil was up slightly to $49.35 per barrel with futures contracts trading at a 6-month high as new wildfire warnings threatened Canada’s oil supplies.

Silver tracked and extended the fall in gold prices, dropping around 1.3% from Tuesday’s highs to $17.06 per ounce.

“We have got several risks, so when you start adding them up, it could be that additional risks will sway some investors to add exposure to gold or maybe revisit gold,” reckons Denmark’s Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen, who predicts gold jumping to $1400 per ounce again this year, not least on the risk of a possible ‘Brexit’ vote in the UK’s referendum on European Union membership next month.

The world’s largest gold-backed exchange traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE Arca: GLD), swelled again on Tuesday, increasing by 0.6% to almost 856 tonnes – the highest level since November 2013.

Gold Prices Slip following Strong U.S. Economic Data, Investors Waiting for FOMC Minutes for Cues on Interest Rates Hike

GOLD PRICES tracked lower to $1272 per ounce on Wednesday morning in London, while markets were waiting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes to be released later today, writes Steffen Grosshauser at BullionVault. Investors were hoping for further information about the timing of the next interest rates hike.

Strong U.S. economic data and comments by the Presidents of the Atlanta and San Francisco Feds that at least two increases may be warranted this year buoyed by prospects of the central bank increasing rates rather sooner than later. A third Fed official said that he would push for an interest hike as early as June when officials meet next.

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) accelerated by 0.4% in April and showed its biggest increase in more than three years, according to data published by the Department of Labor on Tuesday. Petrol prices and rents also rose while new housing starts and industrial production recovered by 6.6% and 0.7% respectively, which are seen by several market observers as indicators for a steady inflation build-up.

Gold dropped around 0.5% from $1280 following this news. The yellow metal has rallied around 20% so far this year, as lower rates also decrease the opportunity costs of non-interest-yielding gold.

“The prices have slipped slightly today… that is partly due to speculation or increased bets that the Fed will be listing higher rates this year,” said Vyanne Lai, analyst at National Australia Bank.    

“Expectations appear to be that minutes will signal that a summer hike is on the cards,” agrees currency strategist Stuart Bennett at the Spanish banking group Santander.

The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, climbed 0.3% to 94.83.

Brent crude oil was slightly up to $49.35 per barrel with futures trading at a 6-month high, as new wildfire warnings were threatening Canada’s oil supplies.

Silver prices tracked gold and expanded its fall by dropping around 1.3% to $17.06 per ounce.

While gold sank after the remarks by the Fed officials on Tuesday, the risk of a U.K.’s Brexit vote may lift prices again, according to the Denmark’s Saxo Bank.

“It’s not just one risk right now,” said their Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, who predicts gold jumping to $1400 per ounce again this year. “We have got several risks, so when you start adding them up, it could be that additional risks will sway some investors to add exposure to gold or maybe revisit gold.”

In the meantime, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange traded fund SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE Arca: GLD) increased by 0.56% to 855.89 tonnes on Tuesday – the highest level since November 2013.

Gold Investment Surge 'Marks Major Price Low' But India & China Demand 'Dead' So Far in 2016

GOLD INVESTMENT prices slipped to 3-session lows beneath $1270 per ounce in London trade Tuesday, retreating 1.4% from yesterday’s 1-week high as Western equities failed to follow China’s stock market higher.
 
Silver also erased Monday’s pop higher, trading unchanged in Dollar terms from the end of last week at $17.13 per ounce.
 
“Major lows achieved across the complex,” says a new chart book from the technical analysis team at French investment and London bullion bank Societe Generale – calling December 2015’s gold price low a “major bottom” at $1045 per ounce.
 
“Short term though, a shaky configuration [is] expected.”
 
“We are confident,” agrees the new Commodities Quarterly from Chinese-owned ICBC Standard Bank’s strategists in London, “in stating that the lows for this cycle are behind us for all precious metals. The bears have returned to hibernation.
 
“[But] while Western investment demand for gold has been robust so far this year, physical demand from Middle Eastern, Indian and Asian markets has not.”
 
“US wealth-management allocations to gold have risen in 2016,” said one precious metals strategist at Monday night’s Bulls vs Bears Debate for the Association of Mining Analysts in London, sponsored by MoneyWeek magazine and gold retailer Sharps Pixley.
 
“That matters,” the debate heard, because it exposes gold prices to some of the $250 trillion in total global wealth, rather than just the $150-200bn consistently spent each year by jewelry consumers, coin and bar investors, and other regular buyers.
 
Despite gold prices rising at the fastest pace in 30 years during Q1, hedge-fund giant Paulson & Co. cut its holding of shares in the giant SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca:GLD) by 17% as some of the group’s investment products lost 15% of their value, regulatory filings show.
 
Paulson & Co. has used GLD shares to offer clients “gold-denominated” shares in its funds since 2009.
 
Hedge fund legend George Soros’ group, in contrast, bought almost as many GLD shares between January and March as Paulson & Co. sold, rebuilding an exposure to gold price movements slashed just ahead of the Spring 2013 gold crash.
 
“Demand from Asia [meantime] is as weak as I’ve ever know it,” said one precious metals strategist on Monday.
 
“China and India are deathly quiet,” confirmed a secure logistics executive separately to BullionVault, with gold and silver shipments into those major demand centers “as good as zero” so far in 2016 compared with recent years.
 
China’s new benchmark Shanghai Gold Price today showed a discount to London wholesale prices for the third time since its launch a month ago, with demand and supply concentrated at a Dollar equivalent price some 80 cents cheaper per ounce.
 
India’s trade deficit fell to a 5-year monthly low in April, new data said last week, reduced by a collapse in bullion inflows extending what analysts already called a “pitiful” first quarter for Indian gold demand, when consumer purchases fell 39% from the same period last year, according to data compiled for mining-backed market development organization the World Gold Council.

Gold Price Trades Up to 2016 Highs as China's ICBC Expands Bullion Banking with Barclays Vault

GOLD PRICES rose to 1-week highs in London bullion trade Monday, touching $1288 per ounce as China’s stock markets held flat overall but New York equities pointed lower with UK shares as half of Europe stayed shut for the Whit Monday holiday.
 
Silver just outpaced the rise in gold prices, gaining 1.2% from the close of Friday’s US trade but only to two-session highs of $17.38 per ounce.
 
Recovering 2.4% from last week’s lows versus the Dollar, the gold price also rose against all other major currencies, reaching the highest level against the Euro at €1135 since March’s retreat from 13-month highs.
 
Gold priced in Sterling rose above £895 per ounce, a two-and-a-half year high when first reached in February.
 
“The acquisition of a precious metals vault allows us to expand our services in clearing and processing,” said ICBC Standard Bank’s head of commodities Mark Buncombe on Monday, commenting on news that the bullion and raw materials division of the world’s largest bank, ICBC (HKG:1398), is buying the precious metals dealing and storage business of the UK’s Barclays Bank (LON:BARC).
 
A clearing member of the London Bullion Market Association since 2005, Barclays built its vault with help from the UK division of security specialists Brink’s Inc (NYSE:BCO), opening it in 2012.
 
That year also saw fellow clearing and market-making member Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBK) launch a London vault, built with help from UK security firm G4S (LON:GFS). But the German financial services group put those facilities up for sale – apparently without success so far – as it quit the bullion market in 2014 following a series of compliance and regulatory scandals.
 
ICBC became an ordinary member of the LBMA in 2011, buying its Standard Bank division in 2015, before moving to a market-making member – quoting buy and sell prices throughout London hours – this April, joining the daily benchmark LBMA Gold Price process at the start of this month and announcing its move to a clearing member last week.
 
“This enables us to better execute on our strategy to become one of the largest Chinese banks in the precious metals market,” said Buncombe on Monday.
 
London is the center of the world’s wholesale bullion trade, with the UK importing more gold than any other countries than China, India or Switzerland and exporting almost as much over the last 5 years despite having zero mine output, large-bar refining or consumer demand.
 
Secure storage of wholesale Good Delivery gold bars in London’s recognized vaults costs as little as 0.10% per year, insurance included.

Gold Investment 'Bullish' But Asian Demand Poor as Dollar Up, US Fed 'Should Hike'

GOLD INVESTMENT prices held in a $10 range Friday morning in London, trading at $1271 per ounce as the New York opening approached and European stock markets erased earlier losses once again.
 
Heading for a 1.3% week on week drop against the Dollar, gold bullion fared better against all other major currencies except the Swiss Franc.
 
Losing 0.8% from last Friday’s finish against the Euro, investment gold in wholesale bars traded unchanged vs. the Australian Dollar, and rose slightly vs. the Japanese Yen.
 
Japanese shares, however, rose 1.9% for the week on the Nikkei index.
 
New York’s S&P index headed for a slight weekly drop, trading flat from the end of 2015.
 
Gold bullion, in contrast, has gained 20% versus the US Dollar so far in 2016.
 
Chart of the S&P500 vs Dollar gold prices, daily since 2006
 
“The market remains too pessimistic about the fundamental strength of the US economy,” said Federal Reserve voting member Eric Rosengren in a speech overnight.
 
“[Should] the economic data confirm these trends,” he went on, “it will be appropriate to continue the gradual normalization of monetary policy” following the US central bank’s first hike to 0.0% interest rates in 7 years last December.
 
“If market thinking moves closer to Mr.Rosengen’s scenario,” says a note from global retail, investment and London bullion bank HSBC, “gold prices may weaken.”
 
“I’m not a gold bug. I don’t think the world is coming to an end. But I do think inflation is beginning to pick up,” said US trader and newsletter publisher Dennis Gartman to CNBC, “turning fundamentally bullish” on gold in Dollar terms.
 
“It’s time to sell the dollar like it’s going out of style,” says US finance website MarketWatch.
 
Looking at yesterday’s new Q1 gold market trends report from the mining industry-backed World Gold Council, “We hardly expect to see a repeat of [Jan-March’s] strong investment demand,” says a note from German financial group Commerzbank.
 
Exchange-traded trust funds worldwide needed 23% more gold to back the value of their ETF shares at the end of March than at New Year 2016, the fastest quarterly addition since the global financial crisis of Q1 2009.
 
“[Now] jewellery demand, which is generally regarded as more stable, should pick up again,” says Commerzbank, “meaning that the gold price should be well-supported in the medium term.”
 
Gold jewelry demand from top two consumer nations China and India collapsed by more than 27% in Q1 from the same period last year, the World Gold Council’s data said Thursday.
 
“As a Chinese tradition, gold jewelry sets are used for weddings,” the China Daily today quotes World Gold Council manager Wang Lixin, “but for younger generations, I’m not sure whether they would like to keep that tradition.
 
“They prefer jewelry that can represent themselves, something customized and personalized” which typically means lower caratage than the 0.999 fine Chuk Kam standard.
 
While India’s monsoon rains are now forecast to reach all parts of the sub-continent by July, the recent drought, plus two consecutive years of poor monsoon rains, are estimated to have cost the economy INR 650,000 crore (US$97 billion) according to a new study from Assocham (Association of Chambers of Commerce).
 
“The lack of strong physical demand in Asia right now,” wrote Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi’s strategist Jonathan Butler this week, “[plus] perhaps overly bullish investor positioning, puts gold in danger of a short term correction or at least a period of consolidation.”

Gold Demand 'At Record in Q1' But 'Uncertainty Abounds' on Jobs, Brexit, No.1 China Jeweler's Profits Warning

GOLD DEMAND and supply through London trade saw prices pop 0.6% higher lunchtime Thursday, rising to $1273 per ounce after new data showed US jobless benefits claims rising more than expected last week.
 
Asian and European stocks markets meantime recovered earlier losses after New York closed lower overnight, while US government bond prices edged lower, nudging interest rates higher.
 
UK government bond prices also slipped, pushing 10-year Gilt yields up to 1-week highs at 1.42%, after the Bank of England held its key rate at a record low of 0.5% for the 86th month running, and governor Mark Carney called a yes vote to Brexit at next month’s referendum on European Union membership the biggest risk to the economy.
 
Gold priced in Sterling failed to rise above £880 per ounce however as the Pound then rallied versus the Dollar following the US jobs news.
 
The balance of gold supply and demand concentrated at Thursday’s new Shanghai Gold Price benchmark earlier found a clearing price at CNY266.50 per gram – more than halving the equivalent premium over spot London quotes from yesterday to $1.80 per ounce.
 
Chinese-owned ICBC Standard Bank – a division of the world’s largest bank – said Wednesday that it is joining the not-for-profit London Precious Metals Clearing Ltd, a group of 5 banks who provide clearing services to the world’s central gold and silver market.
 
“The clearing of bullion in London is an essential element in the settlement of trades between counterparties from all over the world,” said ICBC Standard Bank’s chairman Mingqiang Bi, saying the move “further expands and enhances our commodities heritage, capabilities and expertise…recognis[ing ICBC] as a leading player in this market.”
 
Global gold demand reached a near-record level between January and March, mining-backed market development organization the World Gold Council said Thursday, citing data estimates commissioned from specialist analysts Metals Focus.
 
This contrasts with last month’s estimates from competitor analysts Thomson Reuters GFMS, who provided data to the World Gold Council until 2014. They said a fortnight ago that Q1 jewelry, coin and bar demand fell to the lowest combined level since the global financial crisis of Q1 2009 – back when the US central bank cut its key interest rate to 0% and began QE bond purchases in a bid to stem the collapse of asset prices, with the S&P500 index of US-listed companies hitting 13-year lows.
 
What TR-GFMS call “physical demand” excludes flows into or out of exchange-traded trust fund products (ETFs) and futures-exchange inventories. But including those figures, today’s World Gold Council data put global gold demand 17% ahead of GFMS’s estimate overall, with jewelry demand 29% larger, central-bank purchases 19% larger, and retail investment demand for small bars and coin 15% ahead.
 
“Shifts in the global economic and financial landscape,” says the World Gold Council’s own analysis of the Metals Focus data, led by head of market intelligence Alistair Hewitt, “have created a positive environment for gold investment in recent months.
 
“Uncertainty abounds.”
 
China’s largest jewelry manufacturer and retailer, Chow Tai Fook (HKG:1929), issued a profits warning Thursday, advising the Hong Kong stock market that it made 40-50% less in the 12 months ending 31 March from the previous year.
 
“The decrease [in profit],” said the Chow Tai Fook board, “is mainly attributable to…weak consumer sentiment in Greater China…and reduced gross profit margin…due to [an] unrealised hedging loss on gold loans and [a] change in the product mix, with increased sale of gold products” offering lower profit margins.
 
Chart of quarterly world gold jewelry demand from the World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends
 
The World Gold Council report’s data put global gold jewelry demand down at a 4-year low in the first quarter of 2016.
 
“China’s relatively anaemic economic performance weighed on consumer sentiment,” it says, “while a supply-side crunch further hampered China’s jewellery market” as a new national hall-marking standard, starting this week, required all gold jewelry of 99% purity to be stamped ‘Chuk Kam’ –  literally “pure gold”, a standard previously reserved only for items 99.9% fine.

Gold Demand 'Hit Record in Q1' But 'Uncertainty Abounds' on Jobs, Brexit, No.1 China Jeweler's Profits Warning

GOLD DEMAND and supply through London trade saw prices pop 0.6% higher lunchtime Thursday, rising to $1273 per ounce after new data showed US jobless benefits claims rising more than expected last week.
 
Asian and European stocks markets meantime recovered earlier losses after New York closed lower overnight, while US government bond prices edged lower, nudging interest rates higher.
 
UK government bond prices also slipped, pushing 10-year Gilt yields up to 1-week highs at 1.42%, after the Bank of England held its key rate at a record low of 0.5% for the 86th month running, and governor Mark Carney called a yes vote to Brexit at next month’s referendum on European Union membership the biggest risk to the economy.
 
Gold priced in Sterling failed to rise above £880 per ounce however as the Pound then rallied versus the Dollar following the US jobs news.
 
The balance of gold supply and demand concentrated at Thursday’s new Shanghai Gold Price benchmark earlier found a clearing price at CNY266.50 per gram – more than halving the equivalent premium over spot London quotes from yesterday to $1.80 per ounce.
 
Chinese-owned ICBC Standard Bank – a division of the world’s largest bank – said Wednesday that it is joining the not-for-profit London Precious Metals Clearing Ltd, a group of 5 banks who provide clearing services to the world’s central gold and silver market.
 
“The clearing of bullion in London is an essential element in the settlement of trades between counterparties from all over the world,” said ICBC Standard Bank’s chairman Mingqiang Bi, saying the move “further expands and enhances our commodities heritage, capabilities and expertise…recognis[ing ICBC] as a leading player in this market.”
 
Global gold demand set a new Q1 record between January and March, mining-backed market development organization the World Gold Council said Thursday, citing data estimates commissioned from specialist analysts Metals Focus.
 
This contrasts with last month’s estimates from competitor analysts Thomson Reuters GFMS, who provided data to the World Gold Council until 2014. They said a fortnight ago that Q1 jewelry, coin and bar demand fell to the lowest combined level since the global financial crisis of Q1 2009 – back when the US central bank cut its key interest rate to 0% and began QE bond purchases in a bid to stem the collapse of asset prices, with the S&P500 index of US-listed companies hitting 13-year lows.
 
What TR-GFMS call “physical demand” excludes flows into or out of exchange-traded trust fund products (ETFs) and futures-exchange inventories. But including those figures, today’s World Gold Council data put global gold demand 17% ahead of GFMS’s estimate overall, with jewelry demand 29% larger, central-bank purchases 19% larger, and retail investment demand for small bars and coin 15% ahead.
 
“Shifts in the global economic and financial landscape,” says the World Gold Council’s own analysis of the Metals Focus data, led by head of market intelligence Alistair Hewitt, “have created a positive environment for gold investment in recent months.
 
“Uncertainty abounds.”
 
China’s largest jewelry manufacturer and retailer, Chow Tai Fook (HKG:1929), issued a profits warning Thursday, advising the Hong Kong stock market that it made 40-50% less in the 12 months ending 31 March from the previous year.
 
“The decrease [in profit],” said the Chow Tai Fook board, “is mainly attributable to…weak consumer sentiment in Greater China…and reduced gross profit margin…due to [an] unrealised hedging loss on gold loans and [a] change in the product mix, with increased sale of gold products” offering lower profit margins.
 
Chart of quarterly world gold jewelry demand from the World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends
 
The World Gold Council report’s data put global gold jewelry demand down at a 4-year low in the first quarter of 2016.
 
“China’s relatively anaemic economic performance weighed on consumer sentiment,” it says, “while a supply-side crunch further hampered China’s jewellery market” as a new national hall-marking standard, starting this week, required all gold jewelry of 99% purity to be stamped ‘Chuk Kam’ –  literally “pure gold”, a standard previously reserved only for items 99.9% fine.

Gold Prices 'Target $1400' Says J.P.Morgan, 'Set to Fall' Says Goldmans

GOLD PRICES rallied $15 per ounce from a new 2-week low of $1257 in London on Wednesday morning, as major government bond prices rose, edging interest rates down, while European stock markets slipped.

Energy prices fell, but base metals rose again, and silver tracked gold prices higher to reach $17.32 per ounce – only 1% down from the end of last week.

The single currency Euro also recovered earlier losses to the Dollar on the FX market, capping the gold price for German, French, Italian and Spanish investors at €1117 per ounce.

Halving the week’s earlier 2.5% drop versus the Dollar, gold prices had already crept higher against the Chinese Yuan in overnight trade, with the new Shanghai Gold Price benchmark extending its premium above global spot quotes to $4.60 per ounce at the afternoon ‘fixing’.

“Gold can go a lot higher,” reckons US investment and London bullion bank J.P.Morgan’s global head of fixed income, FX and commodities, Solita Marcelli, speaking to CNBC.

“We are telling clients to position for a new and very long bull market,” she said, targeting $1400 gold by year-end.

Fellow US investment bank and London bullion market-maker Goldman Sachs also raised its gold price targets, hiking its 3, 6 and 18-month forecasts by 9%, 12% and 15% respectively.

But after being forced to close their short gold recommendation to clients by New Year 2016’s sharp rebound, the team led by Jeffrey Currie still expects a summer drop to $1200 per ounce, with prices still falling again from there.

“While the upside risks to gold pricing appear relatively limited,” Goldman’s update says, “we see a number of catalysts for gold prices to moderate, including a more hawkish Fed and ultimately US policy rate divergence [from the rest of the world], corresponding with gradual Dollar appreciation over the next 3-12 months.”

Shorter-term, “the metal has been moving sideways,” says the latest technical analysis from Russell Browne at Canada-based Scotiabank’s New York office, advising that “only a break of resistance at $1303 (the recent high) or support (intact at $1256…next major level in the $1242-1245 area) will reverse my neutral view on gold.”

Shareholdings in the giant SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca:GLD) – the world’s largest exchange-traded gold product – rose again yesterday, needing 839 tonnes of gold backing, the largest quantity in 2.5 years.

“ETF inflows followed the move higher in the gold price in April,” Bloomberg quotes Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi’s strategist Jonathan Butler.

“This upwards momentum has followed through into May despite gold [prices] coming off highs of the start of the month.”

Gold Prices 'Most Responsive' as Fed Rate-Hike Expectations Rise, Dollar Gains

GOLD PRICES touched a near 2-week low versus the Dollar overnight Tuesday, rallying in London trade but holding most of yesterday’s sharp $30 per ounce drop as US interest rates ticked higher again in the bond market and Western stock market erased early strong gains.
 
The Euro also touched its lowest Dollar value so far in May, while the British Pound rallied from its lowest level in almost 3 weeks ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England decision on interest rates.
 
That held gold priced in Sterling at £875 per ounce, a 29-month high when first reached in February.
 
Chart of the wholesale gold bullion price in British Pounds Sterling per ounce
 
Chinese gold prices also steadied as the Yuan retreated to a 2-month low against the Dollar on the FX market.
 
Tuesday’s Shanghai gold price benchmark came in equal to more than $1268 per ounce, some $3.85 above then-current quotes for London settlement.
 
Trading in the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s main spot contract, however, halved from Monday’s jump to a 2-month record-high volume.
 
“The Fed target rate has a significant impact on the financial sector,” says new analysis from French investment and bullion bank Societe Generale, finding that “changes in Fed interest-rate hike probabilities are associated with significant and consistent price moves in both gold and silver.
 
Noting a more sizeable response in commodity prices than in the US Dollar’s FX rate, “Gold was the most responsive commodity in our analysis overall,” says the research, produced jointly by SocGen’s Cross Commodity Strategy and Commodities Research teams, and looking at changing expectations of a Fed rate hike – as measured by the CME Group’s Fedwatch widget – since January 2014.
 
The probability of a Fed rate hike in June to 0.75% rose over the last month from 1-in-44 to 1-in-13 according to betting on CME interest-rate futures.
 
The odds of US rates reaching 1.0% at the December meeting have meantime doubled since this point in April to 1-in-8.
 
US crude oil prices today stabilized below $45 per barrel, and silver recovered 1.1% from an overnight retreat to $16.91 per ounce, the first trip below $17 in 2 weeks.
 
“The pullback we had been talking about [has] happened,” says Tuesday’s trading note from London brokerage Marex Spectron’s David Govett.
 
Calling it “a reasonably orderly drop, which leads me to believe that there was not much panic…the move was due more to the stronger Dollar,” Govett adds.
 
“[But] I suspect whatever happens we will see some selling on any rally…for the time being.”
 
Jewelry stores in India – the world’s No.2 gold-consumer nation behind China – meantime reported weak gold sales over the Akshaya Tritiya festival ending culminating Monday.
 
“Compared to last year demand is nearly 35% lower,” Reuters quotes said Kumar Jain, vice-president of the Mumbai Jewellers Association.
 
Worsening drought in central states is also denting gold demand, according to local press, as rural incomes are likely to suffer from a poor harvest, with armed guards already posted at some reservoirs to prevent theft by desperate farmers.
 
The number of forest fires in India so far in 2016 exceeds each of the last three years, according to the Ministry of Environment.

Gold Prices Sub-$1270 Despite Hedge Fund Surge as Dollar Rallies, China's Imports Sink

GOLD PRICES fell through $1270 per ounce for the first time in 5 trading sessions in London on Monday, retreating as the Dollar rallied on the FX market following Friday’s weaker than expected US jobs data, writes Steffen Grosshauser at BullionVault.
 
After the official non-farm payrolls report said the US economy added the fewest jobs in seven months in April, weak international trade data from China today saw the Dollar rebound to the highest levels in almost 2 weeks on its trade-weighted index against other major currencies.
 
China’s exports shrank almost 2% last month from a year earlier, while imports sank by 10%.
 
Shanghai’s stock market fell sharply to an 8-week low on the news, while Western equities cut earlier gains as crude oil also retreated after rallying amid the Canadian wildfires that shut half of the country’s oil output over the weekend.
 
Silver fell to $17.25 per ounce – down almost 5% from last Monday’s 15-month high.
 
“Gold held on to a lot of the [recent] gains despite the strengthening Dollar, it seems to be well supported,” says analyst Daniel Hynes at Australian banking group ANZ. 
 
“Investors certainly saw the payroll numbers being a positive in terms of no rate hike in the shorter term, which lessened the blow of that stronger currency.”
 
“As the chance of a June interest rate rise softened somewhat,” adds Swiss refining and finance group MKS’s Asian trading desk, “we should see gold once again test above $1300 following the recent consolidation.”
 
Latest positioning data from US regulator the CFTC say that hedge funds and other money managers grew their net speculative betting on higher gold prices to the largest size since October 2012.
Chart of Comex gold derivatives' 'Managed Money' net spec long in US Dollar terms
 
Swelling by a notional $32 billion since December’s negative readings, the net spec long for ‘Managed Money’ traders has never grown faster on the CFTC’s 10-year data series.
 
Investor sentiment on the economic outlook in the Eurozone has increased so far in May, according to data from research group Sentix, but “uncertainty over the looming Brexit vote likely is a key driver of investors’ cautious outlook,” reckons consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics.
 
With the Bank of England meeting Thursday to vote on interest rates – now at 0.5% since March 2009 – “the central bank will not react to the vote unless real panic sets in,” Pantheon says of the 23 June referendum.
 
British support for staying in the European Union is currently at 42% while support for leaving is on 40%, according to a YouGov opinion poll for ITV television.
 
Gold priced in Sterling ended Friday in London with its second-highest weekly close since the rebound of summer 2013 at £890 per ounce.
 
The FTSE-100 held unchanged Monday even as the German Dax moved 1.4% higher and the French Cac40 rose 0.9% for the day.